23/10/20 Moonee Valley Tips for The Manikato Stakes

This year's edition of the Manikato Stakes appears to have an abundance of early speed, with two noted front runners likely to carve out a blistering early sectional.

We also have an opportunity to test the strength of this year's Everest form, with gun sprinter Trekking making the trip South on the quick back-up, and installed as our current favourite.  

I am with a runner who should sit just in behind the early warp speed and can find clean air, after receiving the perfect tag into the race. 

Expect there to be a number of strong betting moves late, with punters possibly steering around the favourite Trekking.

 Moonee Valley Track Traits

The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position the entire circuit and rain predicted for Friday.

With the rail situated True, expect the track to play fair with both on and off-speed profiles to have their chance. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.  

The Map

This race should be a brutal contest up front, with plenty of noted early speed types engaged.

Expect Pippie (1) to lead at all costs from the inside draw and should eventually win out after pressure from Hey Doc (6) to her outside. 

The midfield run profiles appear suited, with both Diamond Effort (2) and Bella Vella (10) holding an advantage. They will be well positioned to drop just in behind the speed division.  

Noted back-markers Trekking (7) and Brooklyn Hustle (8) will attempt to charge from rearward positions. 

 Racing Market Movers

Pippie has attracted some support early, firming from an opening quote of $7 to now trade at $6.

Race favourite Trekking remains rock solid at the $3.50 mark.

In a quite early betting market, all other runners remain steady. 

 Key Runners

#1 Trekking $3.50

Brings last start form from The Everest where he ran his usual honest race when rattling home to grab fourth.

He is very honest, however I suspect the grand final was last start and this is purely an afterthought.

The stable would have had him cherry ripe last time out and I suspect there is a strong risk that his good form could taper off in this.

Prefer others.  

 #2 Hey Doc $9.50

Must be close to reaching peak fitness after a sound last start effort (4 of 7) at Caulfield, when he was well supported late in betting ($7.50 into $5.50).

Although he does enjoy this track and distance (2:1-1-0) and loves to race on-speed, expect there to be too much pressure from other leader profiles here. 

I'm willing to risk him on this occasion and feel the tempo will be too brutal for his natural pattern up front. 

 #7 Lyre $18

Has raced well all preparation without winning, however her run-on profile will be well suited here given the hot speed.

J Mac has secured the ride which is a big tick and she should race back in the ruck, before presenting late.

I could not find room in my numbers for her, however I have to concede she does look a touch over the odds at the current $18. Can surprise.  

 #8 Pippie $7 > $6

Loves to lead and grind them all into the ground and she looks almost certain to take up the running again here.

She appears to be a better horse first-up and ultra fresh, and I believe she may struggle to reproduce her dynamic win here last start in the Moir Stakes. 

Expect her to compound late and I have to be against her second-up.  

 #9 Bella Vella $13

Certainly has the talent and simply loves Moonee Valley (5:3-1-1).

She was another not far away (0.95 lengths) when placing 3 of 12 here in the Moir behind Pippie. 

The draw in gate 10 is not a complete disaster, as she could find the running line 3-wide with cover and have an ideal tow in.

Leading hope. 

 #10 Diamond Effort $9.00

Not everything went to plan here two starts back in the Group 1 Moir, where she was cluttered up and never really saw clean air.

She has since come out and run a huge race into the breeze, when she was only just beaten (2 of 7) by a good one in Dirty Work at Caulfield.

She's now rock hard fit and from gate 2, can race just in behind the hot speed before claiming them late. Goes on top.     

 #11 Brooklyn Hustle $10

Will relish a hot speed up front and expect her to receive that here, with plenty of mad leaders engaged. 

She is likely to drop out to near last and if they do go warp speed, she will be the one picking her way through the entire field to arrive late.

I expect her to need plenty of luck to weave a passage through or come around them all. Prefer others. 

Of The Others

 #4 Splintex looks big odds at the current $35 and from the wide draw (gate 9), can carve across before taking cover behind the leading pair.

Granted he does face Group 1 level for the first time, however if ridden differently he could surprise a few here.    

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Moonee Valley tips for Friday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.