5/10/2019 Randwick tips and best bets: Epsom Handicap

The Randwick 1600m is considered one of the toughest tests in racing and at Group 1 level, is widely admired and steeped in a long history.

Naturally, the Epsom Handicap attracts a high quality field and those entered for his year's edition are considered amongst the best milers in the country.

I am with one who has had the perfect build up and is less exposed than most, following a luckless run last start when he was hard in betting markets. 

 Randwick Track Traits

The Randwick surface is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail out 3m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

With the rail in this position and a drying surface, I expect the track to play fair. However, in recent meetings a southerly wind (tailwind) has strongly favoured the leaders.  

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.  

 Racing Market Movers

The Rock has been the best backed runner in early betting, firming from an opening $7 to now trade at $6.

All other runners remain steady.

 Key Runners

#1 Dreamforce $6.50

Faces a stiff test to carve across from the outside gate and lead, hence I'm more than happy to take him on here at $6.50.

Expect the rider to press forward, even if some of his rivals hunt up early on his inside. That spells doom inside the final 100m, where he will be forced to "come up for air".

Has the form, but the ugly speed map clearly says no. Avoid and expect a market drift. 

#2 Best Of Days $17

Seems to have lost the spark of past preparations, however does come out of Melbourne Group 1 grade and rarely competes below that level.

He could be the big improver here, going off his last start 8 of 14 in the Sir Rupert Clark Stakes where he worked home well.

I have a few ahead of him, but it would not completely shock to see him in the finish. Could be worth a bet if he gets out to big odds ($25+). 

#4 Te Akau Shark $7

Was unlucky not to finish closer here last start on his Australian debut, when he encountered traffic throughout the run.

He carries a massive boom, with the sectional times from last start suggesting he is very good. He recorded the fastest final 400m in that run and can bounce back to winning form in this.

Look for him to get well back, before unleashing hell late. Yes.  

#5 Gem Song $11

Both runs back have been excellent, where last start he chased hard to finish 2 of 8 in the Shannon Stakes at Rosehill.

He gets up to 1600m for the first time this prep which is ideal, and the stable have suggested he still has plenty of improvement. 

The speed map looks perfect from gate 5 and I expect him to be fighting out the finish. Leading chance. 

#9 Kolding $5.50

Looks the one to my eye, following a slashing win last start in the Group 3 Bill Ritchie.

He was slightly easy in betting late last start, which would suggest they have left plenty of fitness in the tank for this.

This has been the target all along and trust the Waller camp to have him peaking on the day. Should be winning. 

#10 Rock $7.00 > $6.00

Is the new kid on the block and has emerged as a genuine Group 1 hope very quickly.

The win at Newcastle last start was exceptional and although it was in much lesser grade being a Group 3, he gets no weight (50.5kg) for this.

He will position midfield and be looking to mow them all down late.

#14 Star Of The Seas $16 

Was hard in betting late last start, before finishing 9 of 10 after being buried throughout and never seeing clean air.

I have to forgive that effort and given more luck here, he is right in this.

The mugs will drop right off now, however look for him to be popular with the pro punters late in betting. Top hope.

Of The Others

#20 Junipal is a genuine lightweight (50kg) "knockout chance".

He looks to be peaking at the right time and did win over this course and distance last start, which will have some professional model players interested.

Would be worth an each-way ticket if he got out beyond $30.