The Everest Tips: Trekking towards racing glory 5 October 2018
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- Author: Mick GannonOct 05, 2018 04:46 PM
Trekking closer to the grand final
All but one of the Everest slots are now finalised and there has been plenty of movement in the betting markets in recent days, following last week's Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley and Premiere Stakes at Randwick.
With only one week to go until the second edition of the world's richest race on turf, we take a look at how the race is shaping up and what mother nature has in store.
The Everest Betting Odds
| Horse | Odds Sep 13th | Odds Now |
| Redzel | $5.00 | $8.00 |
| Trapeze Artist | $6.00 | $7.00 |
| Vega Magic | $7.00 | $7.00 |
| In Her Time | $11.00 | $8.00 |
| Viddora | $101.00 | $13.00 |
| Santa Ana Lane | $17.00 | $7.00 |
| Shoals | $14.00 | $8.00 |
| US Navy Flag | $17.00 | $11.00 |
| Brave Smash | $26.00 | $13.00 |
| Graff | $101.00 | $13.00 |
| Home Of The Brave | $51.00 | $15.00 |
| Le Romain | $101.00 | $21.00 |
Weather Forecast
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Randwick Track Prediction
With a further 60mm of rain predicted in the lead up to The Everest, it is looking more and more likely that the track will be rated Heavy come race day.
The rail position will play a significant roll in dictating the chances of on and off-pace runners.
The further the rail moves out, the greater the opportunity for runners to reach the outside fence, which has historically proven the best going on a Heavy surface.
The 1200m on a Heavy Randwick surface will pose a huge test for the field, with horses who are proven in the going shaping-up well for the big race.
Best Wet Track Performers
The table below highlights the proven wet-trackers who will relish the forecasted Heavy going and will likely start shorter than their current quote on Everest Day.
| Horse | Heavy Record |
| Redzel | 6: 2-2-1 |
| Trapeze Artist | 3: 0-0-2 |
| Vega Magic | 0: 0-0-0 |
| In Her Time | 0: 0-0-0 |
| Viddora | 0: 0-0-0 |
| Santa Ana Lane | 2: 1-0-0 |
| Shoals | 1: 1-0-0 |
| US Navy Flag | 1: 0-0-0 |
| Brave Smash | 1: 0-1-0 |
| Graff | 1: 0-1-0 |
| Home Of The Brave | 1: 1-0-0 |
| Le Romain | 6: 2-3-0 |
The Contenders
Redzel
The reigning Everest champion will take improvement from his last run off a setback, which saw him scratched two weeks ago.
The Heavy track brings him right back into contention and there is no doubting he handles the Heavy surface better than any runner in the field. Big chance.
Santa Ana Lane
Has improved again off the back of his Stradbroke win. He put pay to Redzel and Trapeze Artist in the Premier Stakes and is proven on a Heavy surface.
The only query is his run in the Autumn of 2017, when Redzel beat him home by 7.4 lengths on a Heavy 8.
However, he looks to have improved significantly since then, with the gap well and truly closing between the two.
The bonus is his ability to win on a Heavy beyond 1200m. Must include.
Shoals
Unbeaten on a wet-surface, with two wins on a Soft and one win on a Heavy.
She showed her foot is on the till with a slashing second to Santa Ana Lane last week, beating home Redzel and Trapeze Artist.
Along with one win on the Heavy, her win over the 1400m on a Soft track in the Group One Surround in the Autumn is a good pointer that she'll run out a strong 1200m on a testing surface.
Home of the Brave
Impressed with a win in the Theo Marks when leading them up over the 1300m on a Heavy 8, defeating Trapeze Artist and D'Argento.
He then went to Caulfield and found the Melbourne way of going as well as the extra 200m too much.
The switch back to Sydney is a huge plus.
The high-pressure 1200m on a Heavy track will feel a lot more like 1300m, and it will play into the hands of runners who have shown ability beyond 1200m.
Huge showing expected.
Le Romain
Has an impressive Heavy track record and has shown the ability to run a testing 1200m and beyond.
He is a level of class below most of the runners in the field, but the Heavy track brings him right into contention.
The Unknowns
These starters present as unknown quantities on a bog track. We've taken a closer look at each of them below.
In Her Time
Impressed in her first-up run, splitting Santa Ana Lane and Shoals.
Her Soft track record reads 7:2-0-0 and she's never been tried on a Heavy surface.
She ran a faster 1200m than Redzel on Everest Day last year and looks to have improved this preparation.
The Heavy surface is the big query.
Brave Smash
Ran a strong second to Viddora in the Moir Stakes and will get the addition of blinkers.
Hugh Bowman has proven he rides the Heavy tracks better than most and if Brave Smash handles the going, he could fly over the top of them late.
Vega Magic
Comes off a nice effort in the 1400m Memsie Stakes, which would have tightened the screws nicely.
With two wins on a Soft surface from three starts, he doesn't mind the wet tracks but is yet to be tested on the Heavy surface.
Is a huge chance if he handles the Heavy track.
Viddora
Comes off an impressive win in the Group 1 Moir Stakes.
Has had two wins on a Soft track from five starts, but like many, is yet to be tested on a Heavy track.
Was a genuine contender before the rain came and you couldn't back with any confidence unless we get a push from connections.
Trapeze Artist
His recent form has been average. The only upside is his impressive third-up record, in previous preparations he has won the Golden Rose and the Black Opal off the back of an average second-up run.
His Heavy track form is a concern, never producing an impressive run at any of his three outings in the going.
Graff
A promising three-year-old who struggled on a Heavy 8 in his own grade two starts back.
Connections are going deep with this Colt, who is now into his fourth run this preparation and this could take it's toll come race day.
He looks a huge risk on the Heavy track.
Can understand the throw at the stumps, but surely he's better suited next year and on a Good track.
US Navy Flag
Meets a Heavy track for only the second time in his career and his first effort was awful, running 15 lengths last in a four-horse race.
The connections have announced they will ride him positively and will go forward in search of the lead, which won't end well on the testing surface.
