Caulfield Tips: Toorak Handicap Preview 2018

The Toorak typically attracts an even field and handicap conditions also makes for a competitive affair.

This year's edition features gun miler Hartnell, who is backing up following a stirring win in the Epsom Handicap last start.

He would usually look a great bet even with the hefty impost, however there looks to be a number of talented runners down in the weights who will benefit from a weight pull against him.

Don't be deterred by wide gates on Saturday at Caulfield. With the rail in the true position it could be a day when sitting wide in a moving line is the place to be. 

Track Traits

Caulfield is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

With the rail in the True at Caulfield, we can default to an even racing surface with both on and off speed at no significant disadvantage.

Being a tighter circuit, Caulfield can play leaderish at times however historically with the rail in, horses can sit three wide in a moving line and still win.

Expect those trucking up with cover even after sitting wide, to still hit the line strongly.

 Racing Market Movers

 The early move in betting has been for Shillelagh, who has been $6.50 into $5.50. Jungle Cat has softened to $11 from $8.50 openers, whilst all other key runners remain steady.

 Key Runners

#1 Hartnell $6.50

Shocked a few good judges when at last start he won The Epsom as the topweight with 57kg, one of the country's biggest mile races.

He loves the Caulfield circuit (6:2-2-1) however has been asked to carry 59kg on this occasion, which looks a bridge too far considering the talent down in the weights this year.

Is too well found at the current $6.50 following the Epsom win and is a likely drifter on course. No.

#2 Jungle Cat $8.50 > $11

Won well at his Australian debut here last start over 1400m, where he ran on strongly from a midfield position.

This is his first go at a mile and that has to be of some concern, although he was strong late in the Sir Rupert Clarke.

He may have come on well from that win and jumping from gate 4, he will have an economical run in transit.

Did beat the current race favourite Land Of Plenty last time out, however the result was flattering considering the torrid run endured by that runner, who finished close enough to suggest he can turn the tables here. No.

#4 Shillelagh $6.50 > $5.50

Non winner who teases us more often than not and the recent form again fits this profile.

The last start effort in the Epsom was good, where she ran on strongly from well back to be narrowly beaten (1.2L), finishing 4 of 20.

Appears as though she is ready to run a big race, however happy to avoid on this occasion. No.

#5 Land Of Plenty $6

The SP profile creates significant interest here, where at his last start he was heavily backed all the way through betting before sitting wide and just missing in the Sir Rupert Clarke.

The pro punters were again chipping away at him in early betting for this, before he drew the outside gate and the price drifted slightly.

Expect the wide draw can be overcome and he will get back in any case as is his usual pattern, where he is still likely to find a position in the running line midfield.

Can see him settling 3 wide with cover and peeling out to run home over the top. Goes on top.    

#10 Noire $10

Interesting Waller runner who deserves a crack at this and has strong Sydney form lines which have been franked in Melbourne. She ran a close second to Invincibella at Rosehill a month ago, who last week brained a stakes field at Flemington.

All reports coming out of Caulfield track work are that she is very good and is one that could get under punter's guards.

Will go back to a midfield position on the rail from gate 2 and if she has luck getting to clean air, will work home very strongly. Leading chance. 

#11 Siege Of Quebec 10

Is another that punters have warmed to this prep as suggested by support in betting.

He has performed well in Sydney, winning the Bill Ritchie two starts back before finishing 7 of 20 against top grade in the Epsom last start.

That looks strong form for this race and from gate 8, the instructions to Stephen Baster are likely to demand he carves across the face of the field to find the front.

However, there looks to be plenty of speed engaged elsewhere and he won't have it all his own way racing on-speed.

He will have the chance to take cover and if they find leader's back, he will be in an ideal striking position. Top hope. 

Of The Others

#6 Dollar For Dollar will be up nice and close riding the speed and has plenty of talent. Maps to find the coveted one out one back position, and from there he can be a big threat at odds. Value runner.

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