Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 18/1/25

This week we focus on two over-bet favourites at Rosehill that both present poison odds and represent excellent risks for punters at their current short quotes.

Early in the card a popular Godolphin runner resumes first-up against fit opposition, where it is unlikely the stable will instruct the rider to be aggressive this early in the preparation.

Later in the day, the “J Mac tax” is expected to apply to punters with a Chris Waller runner who has been up for an eternity and now risks being “over the top.”

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Rosehill Race 3 #5 Polygot $2.10

There are significant concerns about this runner on Saturday, particularly regarding how forward the stable has him for this first-up assignment and whether there will be genuine intent to perform.

While he is undoubtedly talented, Godolphin is not a stable known for fully extending their horses first-up unless necessary.

This race appears to be more of a starting point and they are unlikely to push him to break any records.

I expect a notable market drift in the final minutes of betting, potentially signalling a lack of intent to race prominently.

With fitter horses in the field likely to hold a fitness edge, this race shapes as a challenging assignment for Polygot first-up.

Avoid.

Rosehill Race 7 #1 Osipenko $2.30

The market appears to have overreacted to Osipenko’s “flashing light” run last start, where he produced an improved performance to place second of 12 at Randwick.

As a result, he is now over-bet in this event.

Connections may opt to ride him closer to the speed in this race, but with considerable pace drawn to his outside, the low draw could work against him.

He risks being crossed early, potentially landing three-back the rail or worse, which would be far from ideal.

Having already been through eight starts this preparation, there is a real risk Osipenko may be “over the top,” with his form starting to taper off.

The “J Mac factor” further inflates his price, compressing it to well below value. As such, this runner appears an excellent risk for punters at Rosehill.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.