Caulfield Cup

Punters up and down the country are starting to salivate with the standard of racing lined up for the coming weeks. The Caulfield Cup Carnival signals that Spring is in full bloom. It all kick-starts this Saturday with Caulfield Guineas Day, which is a card regarded by many Victorians as one of the best of the year. And rightly so, with no less than four Group Ones taking place, headlined by the Caulfield Guineas.  Then next Wednesday the carnival rolls on with Blue Sapphire Stakes Day, where some of the country's best three-year-olds take to the turf.  That's before we reach the crescendo, with the running of the Caulfield Cup next Saturday, Australia's second-best race for stayers.  With such a jam-packed schedule, let's get stuck in and look at the tipsters who hold rank at Caulfield so you know who to follow over the next week.   Best tipsters at Caulfield - Media Experts Best Caulfield tipsters from the media over the past 365 day   The horse racing leaderboard reveals the media experts who have excelled at Caulfield over the past 365 days, which crucially includes results from last year's Caulfield Cup Carnival. Giving punters confidence that these results aren't just a flash in the pan, we've filtered the leaderboard to only show those media experts who have placed at least 50 tips at the track. And unsurprisingly, it's none other than Deane Lester who's leading the way.   The undisputed king of Victorian form analysis, Deano has been doing particularly well at Caulfield. He's placed a whopping 164 selections at the track in this period, to see them salute at a strike rate of 24% and a thumping average price of $5.14. This has resulted in a 22% Profit on Turnover (POT) - an extraordinary number considering the 365-day time frame and the fact that Caulfield is often considered one of the toughest tracks in Australia to back a winner.  There's no doubt that Deane's tips will be the most sought after for the Caulfield Cup Carnival.   You can access Deane Lester's premium racing package for Saturday here, which includes his exclusive staking plan, speed maps and his thoughts on every runner.     But if you're looking for someone from left field, veteran racing journalist Chris Scholtz could be your man. Most would know Scholtz as the long-time racing editor and contributor for Racing and Sports, where the quality of his form analysis has long been admired. It's not hard to see why after looking at the 365 day stats for Caulfield, where Scholtz sits second only to Deane Lester. Chris Sholtz's cracking Caulfield stats   In this period he's racked up 19 winners at a strike rate of 25% and an average price of $4.67. On top of that, Scholtz has a good record in the big races. In last year's Caulfield Cup he tipped Vow and Declare as his best value bet of the day. It went on to run second, paying a handy $2.90 for the place. His Caulfield Cup tips are sure to be hot property.   The third and final media tipster who's in the box seat to make a profit over the carnival is Racing.com's Matt Welsh. From his insights on Racing.com's Spring Contenders show, it's clear that Welsh is one of the most astute form judges going around. His Caulfield stats are very similar to Scholtz's, having found 18 winners at a strike rate of 25% and an average price of $4.76. But where Welsh differs is with his best bets. Adjust the leaderboard setting to Actual Stake where the stake of best bets are doubled up, and Welsh's POT jumps from 17% to 22%. This tells us that when Welsh is confident about a horse, it's worth paying attention. He's been seeing them particularly well at Caulfield over the last 90 days, having yielded 18% POT from 55 tips.   Matt Welsh's impressive 90 days stats at Caulfield    Best tipsters at Caulfield - Pro's If it's the record of the pro punters you're interested in, it's hard to go past Cyberturf. This Queenslander is flying at The Heath, having found a monster 61% POT over the past 365 days. This is thanks to 14 winners at a bumper average price of $6.79. If that wasn't enough, Cyberturf has also profited in each of his past 3 tipping days at Caulfield. Cyberturf is one to follow throughout the Caulfield Carnival   The other top performing pro punter at the track and distance is Haystack5.  This New South Welshman has been firing all over the country, but it's at Caulfield where he's really impressed. His 11 winners have come at a monster average price of $8, generating a 58% POT. And with plenty of open races and therefore value expected for the carnival, a punter like this with a proven record of finding juicy winners is a valuable asset. Look for a strong showing.

Date 17th October 2020 Distance 2400m Grade Group 1 Track  Caulfield Prize money $5,000,000 Class Handicap 2019 winner Mer De Glace ($8.00) The time honoured Caulfield Cup is only trumped by the Melbourne Cup as Australia's premier handicap for stayers. Contested over 2,400m, the whopping $5 million purse makes the Caulfield Cup the richest mile-and-a-half handicap in the world.   With just over four weeks until the Group One classic, we talk to David Gately and Michael Gannon and get their early predictions for the race.   Caulfield Cup Stakes: Horses to follow   Gator says... MASTER OF WINE I can see why TAB had him as the early favourite, given he just profiles perfectly. He's an improving stayer from a quality stable and is not yet a Group One winner, meaning he will get in with a lovely weight.  He proved at the at the tail end of last prep that he is a Group One horse, following an excellent effort in the red hot Queen Elizabeth Stakes off a wide run. I wish he ran better first-up in the Winx Stakes, but looking at the race forensically, I think he was a forgive job. He went through his first 600m some 3.5 lengths faster than he has ever gone in a race previously and was wide without cover.  His run on Saturday in the Makybe Diva Stakes was solid and he kept closing, but the slowly run 1600m second-up was clearly not ideal for him.  Expect him to peak over his next couple of runs and prove a major contender in this year's Caulfield Cup.    ZEBROWSKI A stablemate of Master Of Wine, who ran by that horse when fresh in the Winx Stakes at just start number 7. His second-up run over 1600m was solid enough in an on-speed dominated race, where he was fourth fastest home. Expect him to rake further improvement stepping out in distance.  He's a four-year-old on an upward spiral who won't get any weight. With the possibility of no big international invasion this year, he may be the one to run well in this race at big odds.   SHARED AMBITION Had a tough task first-up on a Heavy 10 at Randwick. He then went to the Chemslford Stakes where he was no hope from the back and out wide, yet still ran on well in a split only bettered by Avilius.  Sure, he needs to keep improving. Though it should be worth noting that he easily accounted for Youngstar in March. That mare ran sixth in a Melbourne Cup which was full of high-class international athletes.   Gannon says... RUSSIAN CAMELOT Was huge first-up on Saturday, when running second behind Fierce Impact in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He was wide the trip on a slow pace, so he was entitled to finish off the way he did. However, the run suggested that he's returned in great order.    VERRY ELLEEGANT Waller has her flying! She won first-up in the Winx Stakes, where she defeated subsequent Group One winner Fierce Impact.  She likes it wet, so any rain in the lead up is ideal!   2020 Caulfield Cup All-In market RUNNER WIN $ Master Of Wine 12.00 Verry Elleegant 12.00 Russian Camelot 14.00 Anthony Van Dyck 17.00 Finche 17.00 Mugatoo 17.00 Port Guillaume 17.00 Aktau 19.00 Le Don De Vie 21.00 Nonconformist 21.00 Orderofthegarter 21.00 Buckhurst 26.00 Colette 26.00 Dashing Willoughby 26.00 Nickajack Cave 26.00 Shared Ambition 26.00 Surprise Baby 26.00 The Chosen One 26.00 Tiger Moth 26.00 Zebrowski 31.00

Distance 2400m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Good 4  Prizemoney $5,000,000 Class Handicap 2018 winner Best Solution ($12) Despite the introduction of several glamorous high profile races in recent times, the Caulfield Cup still holds its prestigious place on the Australian racing calendar. Randwick's Everest spectacular will attract a heavy focus on Saturday afternoon, however many will be engaged in the cups tradition at Caulfield. The staying feature always provides an intriguing betting proposition, with punters also keeping one eye on potential Melbourne Cup prospects. I am with the local brigade on this occasion, however I must concede that the international contingent look right up to the challenge after prevailing last year.    Caulfield Track Traits The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and rain predicted for Saturday in Melbourne. With this set-up, expect the track to play fair and both on and off speed profiles to have their chance.  As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.      Racing Market Movers Constantinople is the early mover in betting, firming from an opening quote of $11.00 to now trade at $8.50. At longer odds, Wolfe has come into $21 from $26 openers following his victory in the Coongy Cup on Wednesday.  All other runners remain steady.     Key Runners #1 Hartnell $19 Has continued to run well all preparation without winning and I'm happy to mark the nine-year-old as a genuine "tease" horse now. He will put in his usual honest effort, however you can expect the current price of $19 to drift and for a few of these to have his measure. Avoid.    #2 Mirage Dancer $15 International raider who has some solid recent UK form, placing at his past three which were all at Group level. They have found the services of betting plunge rider Ben Melham, who is often engaged when stables set one up to fire. I doubt they are doing that here in a Caulfield Cup with this horse, however if the money came late it would create interest.      #3 Mer De Glace $7.00 Interesting runner who is fresh off the plane from Japan, where their best stayers are often considered far superior to ours. He has won his past four starts with the past two being at Group 3 level, which has been followed by a 10 week break. I doubt he is in the class of past Japanese raiders Delta Blues or Pop Rock, however he can still give this a shake. Watch betting late for the best guide.   #4 Mustajeer $11 Another of the UK internationals who is dripping in class and displays form of the highest quality.  He is this year's Ebor winner, which is typically an excellent guide to a horse's chance in our top staying features. The reports are that he is flying and although the ownership group were devastated by the draw in barrier 16, trust Olly to find cover in the moving line. Could simply blow them away.    #5 Rostropovich $21 Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig are always dangerous in this race, with plenty of historical success with horses at odds. He was good last start in the Turnbull Stakes, when he grinded home steadily to finish midfield and should improve now up to 2400m. Appears to be a touch less dynamic than most and would need a hot tempo up front. Risk.    #6 Finche $6 Has done everything right in the key lead up events and is from the shrewd Waller yard. He was excellent in the Turnbull when just missing by 0.2 lengths behind Kings Will Dream. Prior to that, the Randwick Kingston Town win was also impressive. Although drawn awkwardly out in gate 19 here, he should still be stoking up again from a midfield position and must be considered a leading hope. Yes.        #11 Constantinople $11 > $8.50 Is the more fancied of the Lindsay Park quartet and does bring solid UK form, finishing no worse than second at his past six races. The draw in gate 7 has favoured them significantly and rider Luke Nolan can position close to speed if required.  He should be the one tucked just in behind the leaders and presenting at the right time. Yes.    #12 Mr Quickie $9 The last start 10 of 11 in the Turnbull should easily be forgiven, as they crawled up front making it a near impossible task for the back-markers. He is right in this going off the Makybe Diva Stakes run two starts back, when he flew late to grab third. He now gets one of the best staying riders around in John Allen, which is a big tick. I expect there to be enough speed up front here to allow him to get home hard late. Now that the mugs have dropped off, he goes on top for me.     #14 Vow and Declare $9 Gained plenty of admirers following a ripping first-up run, where he stormed late into fourth over the unsuitably short 2000m of the Turnbull. He won the Tattersalls Cup (3000m) over the Brisbane Winter Carnival and showed excellent staying credentials in that run.  There's no doubt we are witnessing an exciting young stayer on the rise, who just needs to hold the first-up form to be fighting out the finish here. Will go very close.     #16 The Chosen One $17   Was simply dominant when braining them all in the Herbert Power last start. This is much harder however he looks right up to it following the arrogance shown in weaker grade last time.  Given any luck from the tricky draw (gate 22) he should be storming home to be in the finish. Yes.    #18 Wolfe $26 > $21 Snuck into the field on Wednesday following a tough on pace win in the Coongy Cup and does look a genuine lightweight (50kg) contender. His form is excellent and the on-pace racing style is likely to have him popular with the professional model players. Expect him to lead with ease here and prove very hard to run past. Could start shorter.   Of The Others #15 Brimham Rocks was well supported to start favourite in the Sydney Cup, before putting in a disappointing effort to run 9 of 14.  Although drawn wide in gate 20 here, the stable are far too good to ignore and he could easily bounce back and surprise.  With the mug money dropping right off, the price could be value.     Best Racing Tips 1st  Mr Quickie 2nd  Vow and Declare  3rd  Finche 4th  The Chosen One 

Distance 2,400m Grade Group 1 Track  Caulfield Prizemoney $5,000,000 2018 winner Best Solution ($12.00) The Caulfield Cup is the highlight of the Caulfield Carnival and is viewed by many as the key lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup.  The most notable winners of the Caulfield Cup include Northerly (2002), Might and Power (1997) and Doriemus (1995).  Since 1991 only four gallopers have completed the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double, Ethereal (2001), Might and Power (1997), Doriemus (1995) and Let's Elope (1991).  While the Cup double has been out of reach in recent years, the Caulfield Cup provides an opportunity for local runners to press their claims and international runners to acclimatise to the conditions in preparation for the Melbourne Cup.  The early favourite in all-in markets in the Chris Waller trained Finche. The son of Frankel impressed third-up, running a gallant second behind Kings Will Dream in the Group One Turnbull Stakes. Mer De Glace leads the market for the international raiders on the second-line of betting and is looking for his sixth win on-the-trot. His last three wins have come in Group Three company in Japan and if he can bring that form to Caulfield on Saturday, he's a genuine contender.    Likely field for the 2019 Caulfield Cup is listed below:  Horse Name Jockey Odds Finche Michael Walker $ 5.00 Mer De Glace Damian Lane $ 7.00 Mustajeer Damien Oliver $ 9.00 Constantinople Luke Nolen $ 9.00 The Chosen One Stephen Baster $ 11.00 Mr Quickie John Allen $ 11.00 Vow And Declare C Williams $ 11.00 Mirage Dancer Ben Melham $ 13.00 Rostropovich Dwayne Dunn $ 17.00 Gold Mount Mark Du Plessis $ 17.00 Brimham Rocks Michael Dee $ 26.00 Red Verdon TBC $ 26.00 Youngstar TBC $ 26.00 Qafila Corey Parish $ 51.00 Crown Prosecutor C Grylls $ 51.00 Angel Of Truth Dean Yendall $ 101 Sound James Winks $ 101 * Yulong Prince or Wolfe if they win the Coongy Cup     Next in Line:     1. Nerfbosc Jye McNeil $ 101 2. True Self TBC $ 101 3. Prince Of Arran TBC $ 26.00 4. Raheen House TBC $ 101

Distance 2400m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Good 4 Prizemoney $5,000,000 Class Handicap 2017 winner Boom Time ($51) Our nations premier mile and a half race usually attracts a gun field. This year's edition however, appears to be a little light on local talent, with only a handful of genuine chances amongst the Australian entrants. Look for two international raiders in particular to dominate, where tempo will of course be key and a potentially fast run race likely to set it up well for the northern hemisphere hard heads.    Caulfield Track Traits Caulfield is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 6m the entire circuit and wet conditions predicted for Saturday. With the rail out we can default to on-speed having a slight advantage, however for this staying feature expect the speed to be on in any case. As always a close watch is advised to determine any bias evident throughout the early part of the card.    Racing Market Movers There has been some early money for Ace High who has firmed into $11 from $13 openers, whilst there's been no love for Mighty Boss, blowing out to $91 from an opening quote of $51.     Key Runners #1 Best Solution $15 Godolphin's northern hemisphere teams always send a high-quality Cups horse and this runner looks to be just that, after winning his last three (the past two were at Group 1 level). The Dubai team are always desperate to take home silverware and they have already struck following Benbatl's victory in the Caulfield Stakes last week. His Group 1 form is enormous and even with the rigours of travel and the question marks over adjustment to our local conditions, simply cannot ignore the class. Must be considered at odds.   #2 Thecliffsofmoher $7 Big spruik about this runner right across the industry and he did run well at Group 1 level last start in the Caulfield Stakes, when he finished a close up 4 of 11. Going off that run, he should relish the extra distance up to 2,400 here and looks likely to simply eat it. He is likely to drift back along the rail from gate 3, however with any luck will be storming late. Remains firm in early betting and the track tout push is extremely strong. Plenty of ticks however with Bowman to ride, it represents a slight risk considering the potential "self preservation" for Winx in the Cox Plate. You can expect he won't be taking needle eye openings here and risk suspension.  Regardless, this horse must go on top.    #6 Ace High $13 > $11 Last year's VRC derby winner, who is coming along nicely this prep and is another who will appreciate the step up in distance. He won the Hill Stakes at Randwick last start when beating two smart ones in It's Somewhat and Egg Tart, which will have him topped off for this and peaking. Love that Damien Oliver jumps on board as he usually takes his pick and can have this runner close to speed with every chance if they go steady up front. Leading hope.    #8 Durretto $23 One of the northern hemisphere runners who has to be considered at a price in this.  He brings strong form from well beyond 2400m and that can be significant if riders decide to go warp speed up front. Having won last start at Listed level over 2800m in the UK, he fits a Cups horse brief to a tee and can suck up along the inside, all the way from gate 1. Very wary that the international raiders may have the wood on us this year and he looks great value at $23. Could surprise a few here.   #12 Mighty Boss $51 > $91 Has some merit at a big price following his last start effort, where he kept grinding away over 2000m at Group 1 level and appeared to be looking for further. The stable have had a big spruik on the horse all the way through and he could easily prove them right, now up to the true staying trip. Last year's Caulfield Guineas winner will need a peach of a ride from gate 14, however cannot put the pen through completely, especially at the juicy odds. Can shock.   #14 Kings Will Dream $5 Has been the reigning favourite for this race throughout most of early betting and retains that position for now. The lead up runs have been good, where at the latest he did run on from a midfield position to place 3 of 10 in the Turnbull Stakes. All runs this prep point to a win over further ground here and his wins last preparation were too impressive to ignore. Top chance.   #17 Nights Watch $16 Is on the way up since bursting onto the scene this Spring and although he's not as seasoned as some of these staying hard heads, he can certainly be competitive here. Last start he ran on strongly from well back over the 2000m journey of the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes. That form is excelent and the nature of the run points to him eating up the 2400m. Draws out in gate 18, however will be getting back in the field as per the usual pattern, hence no huge disadvantage. Looks value at the current $16.   #18 Youngstar $6 Potential superstar who took all before her over the Brisbane Winter carnival, where she won the Queensland Oaks and was unlucky not to secure the Derby when thrown in against the best of the 3yo boys. Was a huge run to get so close to Winx last start and a repeat of that run would see her winning this. The Waller stable are the best in the business when targeting these big staying features and it would take a brave punter to oppose her. Very wary and goes in everything.   Of The Others #13 Homesman is the likely leader and could carve across to "rack and stack" them. Appears value and if he can achieve cheap sectionals up front, he will be kicking all the way down the straight.     Best Racing Tips 1st  Cliffsofmoher 2nd  Youngstar 3rd  Kings Will Dream 4th  Homesman Follow this link for more horse racing tips on Caulfield Cup Day. Every tipster listed displays the profit statistics which have been independently verified by theGreatTipOf.com.