Friday Night Lights is back with the Group 1 Moir Stakes kicking off the night racing season at Moonee Valley.
We have found a "must bet" selection in the big one, with a gun Maher/Eustace mare coming up big odds. The market may have missed this one.
As always luck in running will play a huge role around the tight Moonee Valley circuit. However if she finds the moving line with cover, look out!
Track Conditions
The Moonee Valley track is currently rated a Soft 7 with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.
Showers are predicted on Friday in Melbourne, and there is a chance we have rain during the card.
The Moonee Valley surface can throw up significantly advantaged racing patterns, and if the rain continues, on-speed may hold some advantage.
As always refer to the early races for a good guide on track bias.
The Map
As is typical for this race, a strong tempo is predicted.
Zooustyle (9), Rothfire (5), Malkovick (3) and Generation (2) all have early speed and the ability to press for the lead if desired. With the lower draw, expect Malkovich (3) and win the speed battle early to take it up.
Look for Paulele (6) and Isotope (4) to get the nice tag just in behind the hot tempo.
Bella Nipotina (11) and Milevea (10) will be looking to find the moving line with cover, and may need some luck slotting in.
The Inferno (8) and September Run (7) are likely to race toward the rear, and will appreciate the good speed up front.
The Favourite
Rothfire ($4.60) came out and won unexpectedly first up here in the Mckewen Sakes
It was a good run last time out but I am completely against him here at the price, which looks poison.
Expect him to get "BBQ'd" in the early speed battle. No!
Analysis and Tips
I'm with Bella Nipotina who was heavily backed here last start and won accordingly. Granted this is much harder, however if she can find the moving line with cover she is a huge chance at good odds.
Paulele is all quality and this looks a great placement by the team. He is on a possible Everest path and should ooze his quality in this. He gets the perfect speed map sitting just in behind a predicted hot speed.
Generation can hunt up from the low draw (gate 2) and has the option to lead or take a sit behind the leader. Just needs a touch of luck to extricate late and can pounce.
Maher/Eustace star Coolangatta was expected to do more here last start, when the rider tactics threw up plenty of question marks! Given a better ride here, she can win.
1st Bella Nipotina
2nd Paulele
3rd Generation
4th Coolangatta