Caulfield hosts a bumper day's racing on Saturday, with the feature Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes well supported by the MRC Foundation Cup.
In the big one I am with a horse that was well supported to topple Masked Crusader last start, and must be showing plenty at home.
Whilst in the MRC Foundation Cup, expect a gun mare to be primed second-up and very dominant late.
The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 6m for the entire circuit.
Cloudy conditions with showers are predicted for the remainder of the week and on Saturday in Melbourne.
Typically the Caulfield track will favour those with the nice tow into it, launching from a midfield moving line position.
As always, refer to the early races for a good guide on track bias.
Caulfield Race 7 - MRC Foundation Cup 2000m (3YO & Up)
The Map
The speed looks only moderate in this event, with Knight's Order (16) the most likely to roll across and take up the lead.
Others that can be prominent early include Delphi (4) and No Effort (11), who should both be looking to roll forward from their wide draws.
Nonconformist (7) and Tralee Rose (2) can find the ideal midfield trailing positions with cover.
The Favourite
Tralee Rose ($6.00) is stacked with ability, as seen last preparation where she won 5 of her 7 starts.
She was very good first-up at here over 1700m when only just missed by 1.4 lengths behind No Effort. Expect her to only improve as the distances get longer.
Expect her to be the one with plenty of improvement and she could explode here second up.
A must include in everything!
I'm happy to be with Tralee Rose at the price ($6), who looks primed for a big preparation this time in going off the solid first-up effort.
She just needs a touch off luck getting out to run home at the right time.
Realm Of Flowers was unsuited at Moonee Valley last start when getting well back and stoking up late.
She will need luck again getting clear after launching from the inside draw on this occasion. However they may opt to ride a touch closer and I'd still suggest she is over the odds at the current $19.
The 4 week freshen-up should do Grand Promenade wonders and he could easily return to winning form in this. He has good residual fitness from a long campaign this time in, and could grind a few of these into the ground with his stoutness.
Throw in Nonconformist who gets the gun run and is perfectly placed third-up (3:2-0-0).
He should be stalking the leaders from an ideal midfield position, 3-wide with cover.
1st Tralee Rose
2nd Realm Of Flowers
3rd Grand Promenade
4th Nonconformist
Caulfield Race 8 - Sir Rupert Clarke (Group 1 Hcp)
The Map
Expect a moderate tempo early here with Buffalo River (4), Streets Of Avalon (14) and Groundswell (9) the three most likely to take it up.
Others that should also be handy include Dice Roll (7), Irish Flame (5) and Behemoth (3), who should look to punch up and hold positions just in behind the speed.
Beau Rossa (1) looks severely unsuited by the low draw and could be buried back along the inside for the entire trip.
The Favourite
Beau Rossa ($4.80) comes up well under the odds to my eye.
He will be forced to overcome the inside draw at Caulfield, where at times it can be difficult to get clear running as other horses sweep around you.
Although he is in great form, I'm willing to oppose him on this occasion based on a speed map which could easily turn ugly for him.
I have to be with Amish Boy here. He was heavily backed to beat the smart Masked Crusader last start at this track over 1100m, before only just missing by 0.75 lengths to place 2 of 11.
The price is right ($14) and he should get every chance with rider Dean Yendall keen for another Group 1.
Siera Sue is simply flying and clearly should have won last start at Moonee Valley when being held up in behind and never seeing clean air.
She should have no such traffic issues here and can find a midfield moving line position with cover, before peeling to storm home.
Probabeel is the best horse in the race, however must overcome an inside draw and is likely to be forced back early to sweep around them late.
She is all quality and certainly has the ability to overcome the speed map issues.
Behemoth must be included on recent efforts, where he is 2 from 2 this prep including the Group 1 Memsie last start.
Again the low draw is of some concern, however he does have tactical speed and could punch through to race handy.
1st Amish Boy
2nd Siera Sue
3rd Probabeel
4th Behemoth