Horses that once had a high profile in Sydney and encountered a recent form slump often find themselves banished to Queensland in the hope of reviving a waning career.
They often start well under the odds due to their residual Sydney profile and under the right conditions, are well worth betting around.
When bad barriers and ugly speed maps are involved, these horses represent an excellent risk for punters to take on.
This week's lay selections feature two runners that exhibit these factors.
When a stable gives up in Sydney and sends them off to the sunshine state, it's a clear indication that the horse's ability is limited.
No doubt they can still be successful in the lower grades, however when coming up this short at $2.05, it is never appetising.
This particular gelding did have success last start at his first run in the “little leagues”, when he had a picnic up front against very moderate opposition.
This week, the race is completely different and the speed map looks ugly.
He is a huge chance to be posted wide throughout when jumping from gate 7, with good speed drawn inside.
It is also worth noting that this horse made staying in the barriers popular well before Chautauqua! This happened at Warwick Farm at the very start of this prep, when he stood flat-footed and refused to leave the gates.
A horse we know is second rate, will be forced to travel wide and has “Chautauqua tendencies”….very happy to oppose at the poison odds of $2.05. Lay.
Another Sydney reject who was destined for lower level assignments in the warmer climate of Queensland.
This mare also won last start, which will have plenty of the mugs rusted on and applying their “last start winner theories”.
Looking at the Speed map, she has to overcome a horror outside draw in barrier 12 and will be desperate to find cover midfield.
With only a moderate tempo predicted, there is a huge chance she will be caught out on a limb, unless they are willing to neck her and drag back to last.
Does not appear a raging hot $2.60 chance to my eye.
Market drift expected and must bet around at all costs.