Last week we managed to identify two warm favourites, that both came up as good risks with both failing as predicted.
This week we are against the high-profile Godolphin colt in the season’s first Group 1.
We are also taking a set against a Snowden gelding who appeared to have all favours when winning first-up.
He then failed second-up and now faces a stronger field back in Sydney.
Switches back to Sydney after 2 Melbourne runs.
He produced a career peak first up, before failing down the Flemington straight.
Look for him to continue to regress here and the market is still naively pricing him off the electric first-up win.
He was also blessed in the run at Caulfield, where he had the sit behind a warp tempo.
This race is much deeper than what he took on at both starts this campaign.
His price could touch $4 closer to start time and look for him to be a good risk at the current price.
Lay.
The hype and popularity of this horse will almost certainly ensure he is over-bet by the recreational mug money.
I believe the professionals will oppose him late in betting due to his potential vulnerability first-up.
He has a long Spring campaign ahead of him with the likely target and Grand Final being the Cox Plate.
He will have a huge “flashing light” run from back in the field, however on this occasion over 1400m, he will likely run out of ground and condition over the final 100m.
I’m happy to be against him and consider this an excellent risk at the current $2.80.
Avoid.