This week we have found a prime example of “recency bias”, with a high-profile last-start winner almost certain to be overbet at Flemington.
Earlier in the card, we are also keen to take one on that appeared luckless last start.
This “flashing light” run has been well found by punters.
Another runner that is likely to be over-bet due to the last start “flashing light” run.
On that occasion, he was held up and only just missed (2 of 8) at Caulfield.
As discussed in previous Lays articles, these luckless last-start profiles seem to be very well found.
Recreational punters believe they have an edge and insight because they saw the horse run into “dead ends” last time out.
There are plenty of talented runners elsewhere in this race which will be harder to find for the recreational punter but represent better value.
Look for a market drift close to start time as the bigger model players take this runner on.
$3+ could be widely available come start time.
Avoid.
The market will be all over this runner after the first up run where he gave everything a touch-up.
The stable had him fully wound up and ready to go for the first-up assignment and he could regress here off the big fresh run.
Although he stays in Group 3 grade, this looks like a harder race with a number of Group performers.
Again the market will be priced on a large degree of recency bias until the bigger professionals get involved late to discover his true price.
With the expected gentle tempo, he may run out of runway to mow them all down on this occasion.
Lay.