Victorian racing heads to Pakenham to kick off the week, with punters set for an 8-race card on the synthetic surface.
The rail is in the true position, with fine weather forecast for the West Gippsland region.
This is a very intriguing meeting, with a handful of horses who performed well at the jump-outs, lining up at decent prices.
Throw into the mix the highly anticipated return of Ready For Caviar, daughter of Black Caviar, and we're set for a decent day of racing.
My best bets for the meeting come in the first 5 races. The back-end of the card looks very open and difficult to dissect.
I've identified 8-races at Pakenham and Port Macquarie that represent good betting opportunities.
For my full tip package and runner comments, click here.
From the stewards
Inthelapofthegods in race 4 is one to keep your eye on in the stewards report.
Last start at this track, the Sidestep gelding showed good early pace from the wide barrier but was caught three wide early.
He then pulled his way up to the leaders, before being joined by the eventual winner on the turn. The two front-runners compounded quickly, but Inthelapofthegods worked well to the line to finish an honourable fourth.
From the better draw today, I expect Arron Lynch to let his mount roll forward.
There is a distinct lack of speed in the race, so don't expect much pressure up front. Expect this fella to be very strong late.
Jockey to follow
Matthew Cartwright has solid riding stats at Pakenham Synthetic.
In the past 12 months, Cartwright has had 35 mounts for 5 wins and 11 placings.
The hoop has 7-rides today, with his best chance coming in race 6 on Encanto.
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Below is his best bet and quaddie numbers Pakenham.
This Fastnet Rock filly was strong on debut, running 1.5-lengths behind the winner on the Pakenham turf track over 1200m.
She then went to Sandown Hillside and was defeated by the talented Holyfield by 5.7-lengths. Following that run, jockey Damien Oliver suggested that the filly was looking for a let-up.
She was sent to the spelling yard accordingly and appears to have taken a stack of improvement from her time off.
Her recent jump out indicated that she's come back in good order and could put a few wins together this time in.
From barrier 9, I expect her to be ridden midfield with cover sitting off a strong tempo. From there she'll be able to peel wide and run over the top of her rivals late.
If there was a query, it would be the stats of apprentice jockey Thomas Stockdale who has only tasted victory 4 times from 78 rides at this track.
This stat alone is likely to see this filly start a little longer in the market, with the syndicates likely to bet around her.
Connections have found a very winnable race for her to kick off this prep and with a good ride, she should prove too strong for her rivals.
Race 5: 2, 1
Race 6: 1, 10, 7, 4, 5
Race 7: 7, 8, 10, 1, 4, 2
Race 8: 3, 9, 10, 13, 1