This week we have found two runners that have come up far too short and should drift in the market as we approach start time.
At Moonee Valley, a well-travelled gelding may be feeling the “pinch” after being in work for a long time now.
While at Rosehill we are against paying the “J Mac Tax” on a Bjorn Baker runner, in a race that appears to have plenty of early pressure.
Avoid both at their current short quotes in betting.
He has been up a while now and returns from a Sydney raid at Randwick, where we also advised punters to take him on with success.
He is at high risk of being over the top now and it appears the market is again being carried away with his recent racing.
He could struggle to find a good position from a tricky draw in gate 9 and they may be forced to take hold. This will force him to race further back in this field than preferred.
The recent travel to Sydney and back can also take its toll this deep in a preparation, where they can easily go sour.
I’d much prefer to be with a few others at a price in this event, and expect $3+ could be widely available come start time.
Avoid.
Looks very well found here after having no luck first up, whereby the market often tends to over-bet the last start luckless runs.
He also has J Mac to steer which will add another truckload of mug money into the price.
Bookmakers will have no trouble attracting investment at the poison odds.
This race shapes as a very fast run affair with plenty of pressure throughout the field.
If they are intent on leading from gate 2 expect those drawn wider to be carving across and applying the “blowtorch”.
They will be keen to use the good draw and with the extra work needed to hold a forward position they may be paddling late.
Should blow up inside the final 100m.
Lay.