This week we have found two favourites that are over-bet and currently represent poor value for punters.
At Caulfield, the high-profile pairing of Peter Moody and Jamie Kah is very exposed.
The tote pools and corporates will be awash with recreational “mug money” on this selection.
While at Randwick, a smart type is forced to contest Saturday Metro grade, where there is likely to be a higher-pressure environment to contend with.
The Moody/Kah hype will kick into overdrive with both representing two of the highest profile names in racing.
She is looking for the hat-trick of wins in this event, which also means she is very well found by the mug money.
The last start effort at Sandown was good, however the race was run in slow time.
Given more tempo is expected in this event she will feel the pinch fitness-wise up to 1400m.
They will press forward in an attempt to lead, but there will be hard pressure from Sir Torobeel who can carve across from a wide gate.
The recreational money will almost certainly over-bet this runner and better value is likely to be found elsewhere in the market.
Lay.
He rises way up in class to tackle a Saturday metro grade race and what has he beaten recently…not much.
He loves to lead and dictate, however with an abundance of early speed, he will be pressured a long way from home.
In Saturday Metro grade and racing for the bigger money, a few of the riders will not be letting him get out of their sights, with the likes of So United staying close enough throughout.
He is also deep into this preparation which means at any time he could be over the top, and perhaps this is the run he regresses off his recent sound performances.
A few bigger professional teams may take this runner on late in betting, and a significant market drift close to starting time is highly likely.
Avoid.