This week we have identified two runners who are both having their first try at Stakes level, which can often be a recipe for disaster.
In the Sprint Series Final, I am against one who has failed in his only try down the Flemington straight and has no Stakes grade experience.
Whilst in the Winter Championship Final, a similar set-up presents with a Stakes level rookie and other unsuitable factors in-play.
This gelding is now forced to take on stakes grade for the first time in his career.
Furthermore, many of his competitors are seasoned veterans who have performed well at group level in the past.
He was excellent when winning at Sandown last start in a much weaker grade, however he will be found out here in the stronger class.
His one run down the Flemington straight was unimpressive and if the track dries it will also be against him.
Look for a drift in the market with $4+ widely available come start time.
Lay.
Reaches the Winter Championship Final after some strong performances in recent weeks.
Although most speed maps have only a moderate speed expected, I’m anticipating a hot tempo.
Too Close The Sun will charge out from his low draw of gate 7, and give Tuvalu no favours as he attempts to cross from the wide gate.
Naturally being the Final, this is also a tougher assignment for Tuvalu and surprisingly it's also his first try in Stakes grade.
He will be forced to absorb plenty of early pressure and is likely to be curling up over the last 50m.
The Stakes level experience will count for plenty here and I am happy to be against him.
Avoid.