This week’s lays focus on one of our main criteria for opposing a particular runner - high-profile horses at ridiculously short quotes. A scenario in which the bookies will almost always be laying them.
Below are two classic contenders in this regard who are both well found due to their recent success.
Have to oppose Egg Tart here at the ridiculous $1.65 quote that bookies are serving up.
Can see why they are keeping her ultra short as she does like it wet and the last start was in much stronger grade than this (Doomben Cup). On that occasion, she settled well back on the rail before being gifted plenty of cheap runs up the inside and just missing in a tight finish with Comin’ Through.
Certainly had a few favours that day up the rail, and not convinced she is back to her excellent staying form when she was a high profile 3yo winning both the SA and QLD Oaks.
The other important factor to note which is relevant to her price is the weather. Whilst there is no doubt the surface will be rain affected (currently Heavy 9), there looks to be drying conditions for the next few days at the Sunshine Coast, with a fine day predicted on race day.
As the track dries out, expect her to drift significantly before the jump, to a point where she could start in black figures. What looks to be a distinct lack of speed in this field also adds confidence to take her on, when she will be getting well back.
The old adage “Odds On, Look On” definitely applies here! Lay.
The speed map looks very ugly for this impressive 3yo colt who has to jump from gate 8 in a race that lacks any genuine tempo.
Can see him being posted 3 wide the trip at his first go around The Valley and that alone could be enough to void his chances.
This column loves to highlight if a high-profile horse is well found by the mug money and priced under the odds by the bookies. Iconoclasm is starting to fit this profile and he's now strung together three wins in-a-row now, which means your taxi driver is likely to be tipping it to you this week and plenty of mugs will have it multied up.
Suspect the professional syndicates will oppose him late in betting but until then, bookies will be laughing all the way to the bank and will have no problem laying the criminal $2.20 price.