The SA carnival is heating up and this year we have a fantastic edition of the Robert Sangster Stakes.
A 1200m Group 1 WFA for the Fillies and Mares, this race is arguably the best race on the SA racing calendar.
Many connections will be looking to add that prized Group 1 mark to their Filly or Mares record with breeding prospects front of mind.
This year's race is the best for some time with many high-class sprinters coming across the border in search of Group 1 glory.
Track Conditions
The track is going to be the talk of the town in the leadup to raceday with 5-10mm of rain forecast for Friday afternoon and evening.
At the time of writing Wednesday night, the track is rated a Soft 6.
If the forecasted rain hits, we would be looking at likely racing in the Soft 7 range with the possibility of a further downgrade to a Heavy track.
If rain were to hit race-day morning as well, I would expect us to definitely be racing in the Heavy range.
Last week horses were running on with the inside lanes seemingly inferior ground.
The rail moves out from the true position to 3m and I would expect a similar pattern here with horses running on and the middle of the track the place to be.
The Map
They will go quick here which is expected with high-quality sprinters.
Marabi and Passive Aggressive are the two likely leaders and have plenty of speed to burn so expect them to be up front leading.
Seradess will likely box seat and has drawn for a cosy run.
The favourite Bella Nipotina is coming out of gate 5 and maps a treat to sit midfield and get a lovely run in transit.
The Favourite
Bella Nipotina has been the subject of some strong betting moves during the week even prior to the barrier draw on Tuesday.
With rain forecast, this falls perfectly into Bella Nipotina's hands with the 5yo Mare running best on rain-affected tracks.
She has had a very strong preparation which included a great effort in the Lightning Stakes over 1000m fresh, just finishing behind Coolangatta.
She failed 2nd up behind In Secret but that is the case for the majority of this field.
Since then she finished strongly in the William Reid at the Valley before a great effort in the Quokka last start just missing out behind Overpass and Amelia's Jewell.
With a perfect draw here and rain forecast (Who can forget her Manikato demolition on a Heavy 8 last spring), Bella Nipotina looks very well placed and the one to beat.
Free Horse Racing Tips
Marabi is a lightly raced 6yo in search for her 2nd Group 1 victory after winning the Oakleigh Plate just over a year ago.
She returned after a year gap in racing with only a fair effort in the Lightning Stakes.
She has had a letup after that and has been set to kick off here back over the 1200m which I think is more her go.
She will roll forward and is 1/1 on rain affected group.
She will give a huge site up on speed and take running down.
Zapateo has different form lines compared to the rest of the field, off a Group 2 Sapphire Stakes win last start in smart fashion.
Prior to that, she won at Group 3 level after an honest effort in the Oakleigh Plate.
Zapateo has run her best when up against her own sex and she obviously gets this here.
She is a weapon on wet tracks and just has to overcome a wide gate here to be right in the finish.
She may find herself without cover midfield but if she is able to tuck in somewhere, she will be right in the frame for her first Group 1 victory.
After running third in this race last year, September Run has just been going fairly Her best effort came in the Lightning Stakes when running 4th to Coolangatta.
She was able to find the line well in the William Reid last time she stepped out and has had a little break in the lead-up to this which is the same setup as she had last year.
She has drawn out here but will settle right back and look to run on strongly.
If she can find her best, she will be hard to hold out in the finish.
1st Bella Nipotina
2nd Marabi
3rd Zapateo
4th September Run
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