A cloud of vulnerability hovers over hot favourite for this year's Doomben Cup, Zaaki, following his "gut-busting" run in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes at the Sunshine Coast.
Will he be able to back up as the market expects? I think not, and suspect this race may expose that his glory days are over.
I'm with a Waller runner who looks well set-up for this and was given a very easy time in her lead up run last start.
Expect there to be a decent tempo and with this field rolling along, it may present an opportunity for those with cover just in behind.
Track Conditions
The Doomben track is currently rated a Heavy 8 with the rail out 2m for the entire circuit.
Overcast conditions are predicted today (Thursday) however clearing for Friday, with fine conditions expected on race day.
Expect the tighter turning Doomben surface to favour those racing closer to the speed, with runners positioning up and in best suited.
As always, refer to the early races for a good guide on any track bias.
The Map
Numerian (9) is the most likely to press forward, with Zaaki (11) to sit outside this runner, facing the breeze.
Nonconformist (8), Palmeto (5) and Zeyrek (2) all get the gun runs just in behind the speed and should all be in handy striking positions.
If they do go fast, the tempo will suit Atishu (10) and Huetor (7) who can both race a touch closer with cover in midfield positions.
The interesting 3YO Kovalica (13) is likely to be dragged back to near last, and faces a significant task to reel them all in.
Overall this race should be run at a solid tempo.
The Favourite
Zaaki ($2.00) is clearly the gun runner, however from the draw in gate 11 will need to battle for the front and could be forced to do more work racing outside the leader.
He was forced to endure a torrid run last time out at the Sunshine Coast when winning the Hollindale Stakes, and subsequently looked very flat late.
I have a big concern he hasn't come through the last start "gut-buster" well, and is a big chance to race flat here especially if he has no favours in the run again.
Class should carry him a long way, however he looks vulnerable and well under the odds in this.
Free Horse Racing Tips
I'm with Atishu who gets her chance against the favourite here, and is likely to be ridden much more positively in the Group 1.
She was given a very easy time last start at the Sunshine Coast. It looked as though there was a clear lack of intent and no real urgency shown, possibly as a "sighting" run for this.
Huetor is going well and did win this race last year. He was a huge run in the Hollindale Stakes last start, where he kept on coming to finish a close up 2 of 14 (0.4 Lengths) behind Zaaki.
He looks to be peaking at just the right time and no doubt the stable would have been targeting this race from a long way out.
Numerian is a tough on-speed runner who can still be there off a strong tempo, as proven in his brave Australia Cup run (2 of 16) earlier this year.
I expect him to find the lead and whilst the pressure will be on, he may simply relish it. Can hold on.
Clearly Zaaki has the quality and if right, should be highly competitive.
However I'm against him on this occasion given the taxing Hollindale run and he may be well below his best in this.
1st Atishu
2nd Huetor
3rd Numerian
4th Zaaki
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