Queensland racing is about to hit boiling point with the first of many Group 1's this Saturday.
The Doomben 10,000 officially marks the start of the QLD carnival and hasn't a stacked field been assembled for the history-rich race.
A field of 10 will contest the race aiming to join previous winners such as Chief De Beers, Falvelon, Prince Trialia and Black Onyx on the honour role.
This year we have one of the shortest-priced favourites in the event, with Giga Kick being sent out at red-figure odds.
Plenty will be in his corner, but I have a few value plays that can knock off the star 3YO.
Track Conditions
The track is currently rated a Soft 5 as of Thursday afternoon.
There is minimal rain expected in the lead-up to the race and we are likely to be racing on a Good surface by the time the feature comes around.
For sprint distances, barrier positions at Doomben hold crucial advantages.
Those drawn the inside 6 barriers all strike at over 10% with the remaining barriers fighting for the scraps.
No surprises gate 1 is the best at 13.8%.
With a sharp bend and shorter straight than Eagle Farm, you want horses that generally are up on speed.
The Map
The scratching of Eduardo has created intrigue as to how this race will pan out.
I can see Prince Of Boom (5) and Weona Smartone (6) taking up the running, with Mazu (7) and Mariamia (8) attempting to slide across with them, to land just behind.
I don't like Mariamia's and Overpass' (10) chances of finding a spot in running, with both Vilana (1) and Centrefire (2) to punch up and make the most of their barriers.
Look for Giga Kick (4), Aft Cabin (3) and A Case Of You (9) to settle rearward and be storming home late.
The Favourite
There isn't much left to say about Giga Kick. The reigning Everest champ is on track to become the best horse in the Country.
His form lines through this Autumn campaign are elite, beating all but I Wish I Win in the T.J. before nailing Zaaki in the All-Aged Stakes.
However he now returns to the short 1200m sprint, and I have my concerns at the $1.75 quote.
Throughout his career, he has never raced a similar course to Doomben.
The majority of racing has been at Flemington and Randwick with a long, wide-open straight.
Is he going to handle the bend okay? Big risk at the price, plus throw in his rearward racing pattern from an inside gate and you could be looking at an absolute poison bet to make.
No doubt the class runner but at the price you can leave me out.
Free Horse Racing Tips
I am going to have an each-way speck on an outsider in the field with A Case Of You ($46 / $8).
He enters this contest 3rd up where he is unbeaten and brings some decent International formlines into this race.
His first two runs in Australia have been full of merit and his last start 6th at Eagle Farm was a lot better than it shows on the form guide.
He was slow to begin and had to settle right at the rear of the field.
This forced him the widest on the turn and the margin was too big to bridge.
He finished only 1.8L off the winner and was strong through the line.
For this assignment, if he can jump better he can settle midfield with cover behind a hot tempo and granted Doomben plays fair, he can be steaming home late.
Vilana ($10) gets the plum draw of barrier 1 and maps perfectly to land the trail behind the leaders.
Brad Rawiller takes the reins for the first time and I like the move as he is a positive rider with intent.
He is no doubt on a Kingsford Smith or Stradbroke path as his grand final, but can first here on the fresh side.
Mazu ($8.50) gets the services of Tim Clark for only the second time and they appear a match made in heaven.
The draw is the concern with him, but he is up to this grade.
He's had mixed preparation so far in 2023 and can get his Everest campaign back on track right right here.
1st A Case Of You
2nd Vilana
3rd Mazu
4th Giga Kick
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