Two high quality Group 1 races will round out an extraordinary Sydney Autumn carnival on Saturday, under the most challenging circumstances this industry has ever witnessed.
Last week's racing was marred by a strong South-Westerly wind factor, which made it very difficult for leaders to win. With a dry track this week and hopefully less wind, expect the conditions to be much fairer for all running positions.
I have found one at big odds ($18) in the Group 1 two-year-old feature and expect a popular sprinter to take out a high quality edition of the All Aged Stakes.
The Randwick surface is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail out 7m the entire circuit. Warm conditions are expected for the remainder of the week and on Saturday.
With the predicted drying conditions, expect there to be significant track upgrades with a Good 4 rating highly likely, come Saturday.
This should produce a much fairer racing surface than what has presented in recent weeks. With less wind, on and off-speed horses should have their chance.
As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.
The Map
Holyfield (5) will look to roll forward early to take it up in this year's Champagne Stakes, with Glenfiddich (7) likely to cruise across and sit outside the leader.
There doesn't appear to be a great deal of pressure engaged here, and those racing in the first half of the field should hold an advantage.
The Favourite
King's Legacy ($2.60) arrives off a last start win at this track in the Group 1 Sires Produce over 1400m, where he had the race run to suit and was positioned in the best part of the track.
I am happy to oppose him at the poison price, and the SP profile of last start ($19) suggests he is no superstar.
He is likely to get well back in only a moderately run race and could struggle to reel in the first few in running.
Expect him to drift in the market close to start time. Avoid.
Analysis and Race Tips
Glenfiddich ($18) comes up huge odds in this and must go on top from a value and fitness perspective.
He can be completely forgiven for the last start Randwick failure, which was his first try on a Heavy track. Back on top of the ground with a dry surface here, he can easily bounce back to winning form.
Holyfield ($5.00) is a big danger due to significant speed map favours, and he could have a picnic out in front if the other riders leave him alone early and they crawl throughout.
Ole Kirk ($4.20) is another with genuine excuses last start in the Sires Produce, when he was hampered at the start and possibly unsuited by the Heavy track. The Team Hawkes and James McDonald combination is typically lethal with this type of set up.
Expect Glenfiddich to provide punters a great sight at odds, with the current favourite King's Legacy well under the odds.
The Map
Blinkers are applied to Brandenburg (2) for the first time and from an inside draw, expect the rider to show good intent and look to position in the first few.
Dreamforce (8) loves to lead and should roll straight to the front from a mid-draw, with White Moss (14) and Fasika (12) also handy.
The 1400m will be a brutal test for the sprint focused types, and you can expect the seasoned horses who typically race over longer to ensure this race is run at a genuine tempo.
The drier surface and less wind should allow for both on and off speed to have their chance.
The Favourite
Pierata ($4.40) has raced well at both starts back this preparation.
First-up he was completely unsuited at Rosehill when it was near impossible to run-on, and then he did enough in the TJ Smith at Randwick (4 of 12) behind Nature Strip who walked out in front.
He finds a race with good tempo here where provided he finds cover, the fast race speed should allow him to get home hard over the top.
Analysis and Race Tips
I have to be with Pierata ($4.40) to defend his All Aged Stakes title. He has had genuine excuses at his past two starts and profiles well for this, after racing on testing wet tracks in both lead up runs.
I suspect he is fit enough now to tackle the 1400m, and he possesses a superior turn of foot to most of these given the right run in transit.
This looks a very shrewd play from trainer John Sargent with Brandenburg ($17), who drops back in distance from the Doncaster effort and will be rock hard fit.
With the application of blinkers, he should be much sharper. If he's ridden more forward, he can be in the right position to fight out the finish. Looks the value runner.
Bivouac ($5) is all quality after a dominant win in the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington. before looking unsuited by the tight track at Moonee Valley.
He was hampered early in the TJ Smith at his latest and with a cleaner start here, should be much more dynamic.
Star Of The Seas ($51) went very close to pinching the Doncaster here last start at big odds ($20), where he came from a near impossible position to grab second.
He will again start a big price but is absolutely flying and should be included in all wider bet types.
In a mouth-watering contest, look for Pierata to run home hard over the top with Brandenburg and Bivouac the big dangers.