This week, we have identified two warm favourites who come up at poison odds and look severely over-bet by mug money.
Early in the day at Caulfield, the short-priced ($1.50) favourite appears an excellent risk at his first attempt around the track and may drift late as the pro money enters the market.
Meanwhile, in the big Group 1 at Rosehill, Chris Waller may have bitten off more than he can chew, entering his gun three-year-old filly against seasoned older horses in the Coolmore.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Happy to take on the warm favourite here, as he finally reaches Open Handicap grade after working his way through the grades.
Having won his past five starts, he is naturally going to be over-bet by casual punters and bookmakers are likely to keep him artificially short throughout betting.
While there’s no doubt he has been impressive in lower grades, this is a completely different challenge as he rises in class and tackles Caulfield for the first time.
Caulfield’s tighter turning layout can catch out newcomers, especially those used to more expansive tracks.
Unlike Flemington, he won’t have the luxury of a long straight to wind up, making this a tricky debut at the course.
At the poison price of $1.50, he looks an excellent risk.
Avoid.
She comes up as a great lay, stepping out against seasoned older mares who have the runs on the board and are far better suited for one of the toughest 1500m tests at Rosehill.
While she is highly talented, this represents a massive jump in grade and her recent wins suggest this race is more of an afterthought for the stable.
By contrast, many of her older rivals have been targeted at this feature for months.
Barrier 13 adds another challenge as she typically races back in the field.
Rosehill is not the easiest track to make ground on and any traffic issues could be race over.
With better value found among the experienced runners, her current quote appears rock-bottom odds making her a strong risk.
Lay.
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