It's Winterbottom Stakes day at Ascot this Saturday and there is not a single NSW or VIC horse in sight! (except for a handful of horses who planned well ahead). This means the locals have never had a better chance at securing WA's Group 1 sprint feature.
The Winterbottom is well supported by the JRA trophy at Listed level.
In the feature sprint, the favourite looks very hard to beat and could be a complete moral.
Whilst in the JRA Trophy, I am concerned the lack of speed won't suit the raging $2.05 favourite, and I'm happy to take him on.
Track Conditions
The Ascot track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 6m for the entire circuit.
Fine conditions are predicted in Perth for the remainder of the week and on Saturday.
Ascot is a larger track, which typically presents plenty of opportunities for both on and off speed profiles.
The Map
This race appears to lack genuine speed and I expect them to crawl early.
Marrocchino (8) looks the most likely to roll forward and take it up, and may be able to "rack and stack" them throughout.
Juicing Carrots (3) can use the low draw to punch up and race close to speed if they choose.
With the lack of speed engaged in this event, expect those who get well back in the run to be up against it.
The Favourite
Midnight Blue ($2.05) is from the powerful Bob Peters operation and won well here last start in the Listed Ascot Gold Cup (1800m)
His natural profile is to get back and run on, and this style of racing looks unsuited here given the expected slow tempo.
I'd be inclined to risk at the skinny odds, however I must concede he should be storming home late. Possibly too late!
I'm with Marrochino who has the speed map favours and should have every possible chance to give a good kick off the front, over the last 200m.
He finally gets out to a more suitable trip (2100m) and has an excellent record at this journey (3:2-0-0). Looks value.
Juicing Carrots is another runner with a great speed map and has to be seriously considered. He is likely to go forward and when they sprint, will have a significant advantage on those racing back in the field.
He won the York Cup last start and although this is harder, he is a key chance given a soft time near the lead.
Midnight Blue is all class and given a strong tempo, would be the one to beat. I doubt he gets the tempo to suit here and because of this, I could never take the poison odds ($2.05) on offer.
He should be charging at them late, however I expect him to run out of runway to reel them all in.
Bad Wolf is classier than most of these, however is another that will be unsuited by a get back racing style.
He will need a touch of tempo, however could be a knockout chance if the leaders travel at a decent clip. Watch betting late.
1st Marrochino
2nd Juicing Carrots
3rd Midnight Blue
4th Bad Wolf
The Map
Expect a genuine speed in this, with Indian Pacific (12) rushing forward from the low draw and plenty of others punching forward early, including Red Man Can (11), Money Matters (6), Caracapo (3) and Wilchino (1).
Look for Elite Street (10) to receive an ideal run midfield, three wide with cover.
Triple Missile (16) and Stageman (15) are the two that will relish a hot tempo, and can be charging home from rearward positions.
The Favourite
Elite Street ($2.50) looks very hard to beat here and could simply blow them all away.
Expect him to receive a perfect run and he can peel from the three wide moving line and rush home over the top.
A winner of his past 3 starts, he strikes a weak Winterbottom Stakes field given the absence of Eastern State horses.
Simply have to be with Elite Street who has a mortgage on this.
Barring bad luck, he can travel midfield throughout before finding clean air at the 200m mark and braining them all.
Brad Rawiller will also be hungry to peg back Pike and Parnham, who have been dominating in recent weeks.
Stageman will likely race back in the field and if they go warp speed, he'll be suited buy the fast tempo. He has a touch of class and was not too far behind Elite Street in recent efforts.
Is some chance to finally turn the tables here given luck.
Wilchino is racing well and likely to position close to speed. He could receive the nice tag just in behind the leader and can be sucking up the whole way.
One lethal turn of foot over the last 100m could see him go close.
Triple Missile loves this track (5:3-1-0) and has an ideal racing pattern for this race if they go fast upfront.
He should be "smoking the pipe" back in the field before unleashing hell late.
If the Lindsay Smith stable do opt to run here, trust they believe he is a genuine winning chance.
1st Elite Street
2nd Stageman
3rd Wilchino
4th Triple Missile
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Ascot Tips for Saturday's races, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.