Flemington is currently rated a Soft 6, with the rail out 3m the entire circuit.
With 3-10mm of rain forecast for Monday, there is little chance of the track returning to the Good range.
The track should play fair early in the day before the rail chops outs, with the best going likely to be 4-5 lanes off the rail. This will give back-markers the opportunity to finish over the top.
Mark shows 27% profit on turnover in November. Below are three of his top selections for Flemington on Melbourne Cup day.
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Extreme Pride, Linguist and Macacaibo have the speed here.
One More Try (1) won this race last year and her current form looks good enough to win again.
Her last start fourth placing behind the in-form Spanish Reef was full of merit. I expect Oliver to sit just off the pace and push forward 300m from home for a well-deserved win.
Seewhatshebrings (8) pushed Amangiri at the Valley last start and is absolutely flying. Her will to win is unbelievable and with magic man aboard, she'll be flying late.
The favourite, Sure Knee (13), can improve sharply off her first two runs this prep. She loves Flemington (4:1-2-0) and with only 54kg on her back, she is weighted to run well.
1st One More Try
2nd Seewhatshebrings
3rd Sure Knee
Finche, Prince Of Arran, Rostropovich and Magic Wand will all look to go forward and set a steady tempo.
The key lead-up event is the Caulfield Cup and there were three notable horses to come out of that race.
From barrier 15, Finche was caught wide and without cover throughout the run but battled on to finish a strong fifth.
Constantinople had the most eye catching run of the race. After being hammered from pillar to post and blocked on the turn, he ran home well to finish in fourth.
Vow and Declare also fought hard to overcome the wide barrier and finished one length off the winner in second spot.
Prince of Arran (8) is in red hot form and comes into this year's Melbourne Cup carrying only 1kg more than when he finished third in last year's race.
With two good lead up runs under his belt, the weight advantage and the perfect barrier, he'll give a sight on-pace and is my clear top-pick.
Finche (4) has had a faultless preparation this time around. A year older, he carries the same weight as last year and under the guidance of Kerrin McEvoy will be right in the finish.
Constantinople (7) was luckless in the Caulfield Cup and if he runs a strong 3200m, he can't be ruled out. Expect a top three finish.
1st Prince of Arran
2nd Finche
3rd Constantinople
Plenty of speed engaged here with Runson, More Than Exceed, Crown Fontein and Milwaukee all front runners.
Haunted (3) has won down the straight and under all conditions.
He is in terrific form and from barrier three, can sit behind the leaders. When the whips start cracking, he'll be the one running over the top of them.
Parsifal (1) has drawn awkwardly in barrier one, but his form is something to behold. A good second behind Zoutori first-up down the straight and a win at the Valley last start has him primed for another big run. A clear second pick here.
His 1.2 length win at Valley last start has him primed for another big run. A clear second pick.
Milwaukee (2) is a track specialist and will sit right on the speed. He loves the straight and handles a rain affected surface.
1st Haunted (Best Bet)
2nd Parsifal
3rd Milwaukee
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