Following the conclusion of the Everest carnival at Randwick, Saturday NSW metropolitan racing heads back to Rosehill this weekend for a nine race card highlighted by the Golden Eagle.
Despite the attention on Derby Day in Melbourne, the showcase Sydney event has sparked plenty of interest from punters across the country as a wide field gets set to battle it out for the thumping $7.5 million purse.
Supporting the main event is the Yes Yes Yes Stakes and the Rosehill Gold Cup.
Rosehill is currently rated a Heavy 8 and there is nothing but rain forecast in the lead-up to race day, so don't expect the track to improve.
Based on recent meetings at this track, on-pace runners typically hold an advantage. However on Saturday, I expect those horses who are able to sit behind the leaders and peel off in the straight to have the winning formula.
There is an abundance of speed in this race and most of it will come from the inside draws, which makes this race even tougher to dissect.
Eduardo (1) has drawn the inside and will go forward. Expect Man of Peace (3) to go with him and Prime Candidate (5) to be right there also.
Look for Haut Brion Her (9) and Dame Giselle (7) to settle just behind the leading group, with Standout (4), Wild Planet (8) and Gytrash (12) trailing right behind them.
Imaging (13) and Star of the Seas (11) look set to sit a touch worse than midfield, which leaves (10) Signore Fox, (2) Deprive and (6) Mister Sea Wolf to bring up the rear.
In this very tricky race, Gytrash ($2.90) has come up the favourite from the awkward draw.
The Lope De Vega gelding showed plenty of heart in the Everest after having to settle in the back half of the field due to the speed and draw.
He came home nicely to finish third and with the grand final come and gone, is this race just a consolation?
Jumping from barrier 12, I expect them to attempt to sit midfield however that comes with the risk of being stuck wide. Then there is the fact that he's never run on a Heavy track, though his Soft record indicates he will be fine (7:4-1-2).
Given all of these factors, I expect him run a nice race but I can't have him at his price. Good luck to the connections though.
I want to play around two, who are dead-set mudlarks.
Eduardo ($7.50) is the first. He was ridden poorly in the Everest, which gave him no hope at all.
He has drawn ideally in gate 1, gets his regular jockey Nash Rawiller back on and is four from four on the wet (2/2 on Soft, 2/2 on Heavy).
It's going to be hard to make ground from the back on a wet Rosehill, so if he can get away from Man of Peace and Prime Candidate whilst getting some cheap sectionals, he will be hard to run down.
The other I want to play is Star of the Seas ($21.00) who has come up a ridiculous price.
Yes his last two races have been poor, but he loves Rosehill and relishes the wet.
The step back to 1300m will suit at this stage of his prep and if Jay Ford can sit midfield or better from the poor draw, he could be a diamond in the rough.
Unlike the prior race, the Golden Eagle lacks speed on paper.
Just Thinkin' (21) will be coming across from the outside alley, which won't be as wide following the emergency scratchings.
Expect Alligator Blood (15) to follows him across, whilst Riodini (7) should kick up from the middle-draw.
Dawn Passage (16) and Brandenburg (14) will also apply early pressure from their wide barriers, whilst Sierra Sue (1) can take advantage from the inside draw.
The others will sort themselves out around midfield or worse, but I expect Colette (6) and Bottega (4) to sit a lot closer than midfield.
Funstar ($4.80) is the favourite here in a wide open race.
She is ready to win coming off two runner-up finishes, including the latest in the Group One Epsom Handicap. However, she faces a tough task here and will need plenty of luck from the outside barrier.
Despite the lack of speed in the race, expect the gun mare to be ridden conservitively.
She's proven on wet tracks, goes well at Rosehill and with Tommy Berry aboard, she will be given every opportunity to win this.
It could be her day, but she'll be going around without me.
Analysis and Tips
I'll be playing around two here.
Colette ($6.50) is drawn perfectly, can sit anywhere in the run and loves a wet track.
This is going to be a very tough 1500m and for a lot of these horses, it is going to feel a lot longer which suits this mare down to the ground.
Last preparation she won the Adrian Knox and Australian Oaks on heavy tracks by a combined 5.3 lengths.
Her runs this preparation haven't been bad, but the layout of this race mixed with the wet ground brings her to the front of everyone's minds.
I am shocked at the price dished up for Riodini ($19.00).
He is super fit after a second placing behind I Am Superman in the Shannon Stakes, before running a massive race in the Epsom behind Probabeel and rival Funstar.
He is drawn beautifully here and the ground will suit in my opinion.
His first two starts in New Zealand were on a Soft 6 and Heavy 8 (Dead 6 / Slow 8 over there) and he won both of those races by a combined 5.3 lengths also.
He is a silly price and is worth a bet.
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Rosehill tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.