We're off to the North-Western region of Sydney this afternoon for a strong eight race card at Hawkesbury.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather forecast, we're set for a solid day of racing.
The rail is out 3m from the 1100m-450m mark and true for the remainder of the circuit. At this set-up, the track will play fair and give all runners their chance.
Interestingly this meeting has attracted some big name jockeys, including the in-form Rachel King, Jason Collett and Tommy Berry.
It's worth noting that all three of these jockeys have a winning strike rate of 23% or higher at Hawkesbury this season.
There is a distinct lack of quality lining up here, which gives this Joe Pride trained gelding a huge chance.
His last start 10 of 11 was a total forgive. After drawing wide, Pride advised stewards that the gelding would be ridden conservatively and it seemed as though he just went around for fitness.
He has shown early toe previously and it wouldn't surprise me to see him ridden aggressively from the gates today and make every post a winner.
The booking of Jason Collett suggests to me that connections mean business and today is his time to shine.
There are no superstars in this field and if Collett can carve out even sectionals in front, I doubt anything has the acceleration to go past him.
This filly got the job done for us last start and looks the value bet of the day at $11.00.
While the form from the race isn't strong, her will to win is and that will take her a long way in this race.
The booking of Tim Clark is a fair indication that she is flying and now fourth up into her prep, she's rock hard fit and will take some running down.
Stepping up to the 1500m, I expect her to go forward and lead them up. Clark is one of the best front running riders in Australia, so you'd expect her to get every possible chance out in front.
I'm expecting a typical gutsy Waterhouse/Bott jump, lead and hold on scenario in this race.