The Listed John Dillion Stakes sees a group of consistent gallopers step out over 1400m, in search of some black type success for connections.
The aptly named Viral currently heads the market at $3.50, and makes the step up in class against some seasoned professionals.
Last start Chester Manifold Stakes winner Never Again is out to reward new connections with a strong performance and make it three wins on-the-trot.
Meanwhile the gallant grey, Blazejowski, will be seeking to recapture his best form after a string of subpar performances.
It shapes as a cracking edition of the race and a great way to highlight the Australia Day card at Caulfield.
The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4.
With blistering heat and strong winds forecast in the lead up to Tuesday and 10-20mm of rain and cool weather on expected on race day, expect the track to be in the Good 4 to Soft 5 range by the time they jump.
The Map
With a small field engaged and minimal speed on paper, expect SA raider Morvada (7) to cross and take up the running from Dadoozdart (5) and Polanco (8) who can lob in the box seat.
I’m confident Blazejowski (6) will be ridden further back after over racing on a hot speed last start.
Brave Song (2) can settle towards the rear with cover from the inside draw in behind the favourite Viral (3), who maps to sit midfield with cover outside of Guizot (1) on the rails.
Never Again (4) enters this 2kgs worse off at the weights compared to key rivals, and could be suspect settling last off a slow speed
Analysis & Tips
1st Blazejowski $10.20
I'm confident that the grey can bounce back here after over racing on a hot speed last start in the Chester Manifold Stakes at Flemington.
Leading into last start, trainer Greg Eurell was full of confidence but nothing went to plan. He clearly has the ability and class to account for these on his day.
His run here two back was huge behind Pandemic, when running on from the rear over 1200m. I’m expecting him to recapture his best with Jye McNeil in the saddle, despite lumping 60kgs.
Look for him to be within striking distance in a midfield position after the jump, ideally with cover.
From there he can produce out wide, clear of any interference in the straight and charge home.
2nd Viral $3.70
The Danny O’Brien and Damien Lane combination can never be underestimated. However, I’m happy to make the omen bet of the day a lay at the current price, despite a recent run of strong showings.
His form can be easily tied into the more astute performers in the field, after finishing 0.3 lengths behind Chester Manifold Stakes winner Never Again two back in a BM78 at this track and trip.
While he gets in well at the weights here, I’d need $4.50-$5.00 before diving in with any confidence in a wide-open affair.
3rd Brave Song $8.60
Enormous effort to finish third in the Chester Manifold last start, but just faded in the concluding stages after settling further forward than desired on a hot speed.
His run here two back when finishing marginally ahead of Blazejowski after a similar run was super impressive. Like the latter, I believe they both have the credentials to turn the tables on Never Again with a 2kg swing at the weights and race shape in their favour.
4th Never Again $6.60
I'm happy to look elsewhere but after being knocked out of the Flemington quaddie by this galloper earlier this month, I’ll never discount the Clinton McDonald trained gelding again.
He’s a must include for your exotic plays, but will be back nearest to last off a muddling tempo.
That makes it hard to envision him extending his recent unbeaten streak to three.