SA Derby

Day 2 of the Adelaide carnival sees Morphettville host more exciting stakes racing, where the Group 1 SA Derby will take centre stage and has attracted a broad and varied field.  Horses arrive from a wide variety of form lines in both races, which should make for robust betting due to a number of different angles punters can take.  I am with a boom stayer in the SA Derby, who is now ready to confirm his ability as a future Melbourne Cup contender. In the Adelaide Guineas, I am happy to risk the favourite due to the ugly speed map she will be forced to overcome.    Morphettville Track Traits  The Morphettville surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 3m from the 1800m mark to the winning post, and True for the remainder of the circuit.  Showers are predicted to continue in Adelaide this week and on Saturday.  With a rain-affected surface likely, the feature staying contest may feel longer for some runners and could develop into a genuine war of attrition. As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.    Morphettville Race 6 - Adelaide Guineas (1600m) The Map   There is a distinct lack of speed engaged here, with horses drawn wide most likely to roll across the face early and avoid covering extra ground. Expect some of the favoured runners to be ridden closer. These include Done By Me (3) and Really Discreet (9), who can both take up positions forward of midfield. The favourite Kooweerup (4) typically gets well back and will require a fast tempo to run home hard. Based on her racing profile, the filly does not appear well suited in this.   The Favourite   Kooweerup $3.30 was visually impressive at Flemington last start when charging home from the rear to finish a close up 3 of 10.  However, she had the race run to suit with the fast tempo and was absolutely blessed in run. She found a fast lane down the centre of the track, on ground which appeared to hold a significant advantage on the day. She will be reliant on a fast run race again to show her best, and I doubt she receives that here. Granted this field does lack depth, however I'm still keen to avoid her at the price.    Analysis & Race Tips   I expect Done By Me $5.50 to race much closer to the speed than most anticipate and with only a sluggish tempo up front, this will give her a strong advantage. The stable present her with a good base of three solid lead up runs, where at her latest she had support late in betting and ran home well. A slow run 1600m race is perfect.  In what appears a very thin race in terms of quality, Really Discreet $8 is one that appears to be on an upward trajectory. She was good here last start, when charging home to finish a narrow 2 of 10 over 1400m. She was specked in betting late from $18 into $12 on that occasion, and looks big odds for this.   Balaabel $15 simply got too far back in the run here last start over 1400m, and had an impossible task when trying to make ground off the slow speed. She is another that can race more forward on this occasion and improve dramatically.  In what shapes as a tactical affair, Done By Me $5.50 goes on top from Really Discreet $8 and Balaabell $15. Expect the race favourite Kooweerup $3.30 to be charging home, when its all over.    Morphettville Race 8 - SA Derby (2500m) The Map   Expect an even tempo here, with Rising Archie (12) drawn out and the most likely to carve across to take up the running.  Themoonlitegambler (1) and Warning (3) won't be letting their good draws go to waste and they should both punch up along the inside early to hold a position in the first half. Russian Camelot (7) and Dalasan (9) are the two key run-on profiles, who will be hoping the leaders overdo it up front.   The Favourite  Dalasan $3.10 could not have been more impressive visually in the lead ups, where he dominated at his past two starts at this track. There is a small knock on his most recent form, given he has been racing against slightly weaker company. With a more competitive field engaged here including the smart Russian Camelot, he could be found out.  He is still untested at the 2500m trip, however the recent runs where he was strong late, suggest he is a genuine player.     Analysis & Race Tips  I am in the corner of Russian Camelot $4.40 who is very lightly raced (4:2-1-0) and still looks completely untapped. He has been ultra impressive over unsuitably shorter distances and now out to 2500m, could simply blow them all away. Dalasan $3.10 is a different horse now, since racing over longer. Whilst there is a query on him now out to 2500m, the lead up runs suggest he can run this trip.  Moonlight Maid $15 was enormous in the Australasian Oaks last start, when she motored late from a long way back over 2000m and only just missed to finish 2 of 16. She probably should have won last start and looks big odds here.  For broader exotic bet types, include both Miyake $19 and Victoria Derby winner Warning $4 who each have their fair share of ability.  Look for Russian Camelot to stamp his authority as a premier staying prospect and future Spring Cups contender.  For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Morphettville tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.