Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 14/9/24
- Author: James BeesonSep 12, 2024 12:00 PM
- Photo: Getty
Storm Boy crumbles under pressure
This week we focus on two runners who are forced to overcome significant challenges as favourites and come up as great risks at their current prices.
At Flemington, a last start winner should encounter a higher-pressure race second-up and has a negative jockey switch to contend with.
While at Rosehill a hugely popular runner appears severely over-bet following his first-up heroics and is another who is likely to experience a tougher run in terms of early pressure.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his Saturday Lays.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Flemington Race 3 #1 Drifting $3.50
Returned well when winning at Caulfield in stakes grade to kick off this campaign, however did appear to have significant favours on that occasion, when leading and simply kicked well enough.
I’m expecting he may regress here and given any pressure, he could be vulnerable over the concluding stages.
There is plenty of early speed engaged here including Bold Bastille who will ensure this is run at a genuine tempo, where I feel based on the last start effort she could be very weak over the final 100m.
Shinn to Kah also appears a significant downgrade for this particular race, where Kah being a more passive rider, is high-risk for a horse that could need vigour at key stages.
Lay.
Rosehill Race 8 #2 Storm Boy $2.00
He is sure to be over-bet following the last start heroics when blew them all away in the San Domenico Stakes here over 1100m.
This is a much deeper race, and he is forced to take on a number of runners that may still have good improvement to come, following their own 2yo seasons.
He is likely to have company in the lead to force some pressure with Anode, Linebacker and Bustling all capable of taking positions close to or on-speed.
Any pressure through the mid-stages here may see him vulnerable late and exposed to a number of high-quality horse, who can run home hard over the top.
If the track pattern indicates they can win via the wider lanes and running on, expect the professionals may take him on late.
Lay.
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