20/08/22 Moonee Valley Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets
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- Author: TheMelbourneMailAug 18, 2022 03:23 PM
- Photo: Getty
The Valley best bets
The Valley plays host to a black-type day of racing, with the Listed Carlyon Stakes and McKenzie Stakes the features of the afternoon.
The track is currently rated a soft 6 and with more rain expected on Thursday and Saturday, runners will be met with a Heavy racing surface.
The rail is out 5m for the entire circuit with the inside set to be favoured early on.
However, as the day progresses, the lanes off the fence are likely to be more favourable.
The Valley Race 1 Tip #9 Miss Subtly $6.00
A tricky Saturday of racing at The Valley.
Punters are met with first-up horses, uncertain track conditions and a possible bias with the rail.
I'm going to try and steal some cash early with Miss Subtly who can lead, dictate and win.
She has had two career starts and finished a very close 2nd on both occasions, beaten only 0.1 and 0.2 lengths respectively.
The debut run was most impressive. She led, setting a strong tempo that was 5 lengths quicker than the class average to the 600m mark.
She still managed to find more at the top of the straight and was only nailed late by a swooper.
That swooper was Manhatten Thunder, who now lines up in the Listed Mackenzie Stakes later in the day.
Miss Subtly maps for an uncontested lead and can control the tempo to her liking, a major key at this track and distance.
If she can slip away before the turn, they will have a task to catch her with the rail out 5m.
Comes here fitter than her rivals and just might be able to steal this race at a nice price.
The Valley Race 8 Tip #5 Bella Nipotina $8.00
This is a very competitive edition of the Listed Carlyon Stakes this year, consisting of G1 winners and placegetters.
With the second favourite Showmanship likely to be withdrawn to run in Sydney, I'm going to angle for some value with Bella Nipotina. An ultra-consistent horse who is always around the money at the top level.
She is first up and recently won a trial by 2 lengths on the heavy 9 at Cranbourne.
She came from midfield and ran over the top of the very promising Star Patrol without being asked to do anything at all.
Along with that, she finished next to G1 performer Swats That in a jump out on a heavy 10 only a week or so prior.
She is a proven wet track performer and has run well at this circuit.
While this is a touch short of her preferred distance, she looks to have returned in outstanding fashion and is very well placed with Craig Williams on board.
