Caulfield Tips Memsie Stakes Preview 2018

The excitement builds toward Spring as Melbourne hosts it's first Group 1 of the season.

The race’s status has attracted a star-studded field of genuine stakes level heroes and some exciting younger horses all on a path to future Spring riches.

Plenty of interest will be focused on Everest slot holder Vega Magic and with the bigger target in mind for Team Hayes, it's unlikely they will knock the horse around too much to find the lead if others decide to go forward.

 Caulfield Race Track Traits

Caulfield is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 6m and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

With the rail out at Caulfield, we can immediately default to on-pace holding a slight advantage, however a close watch of early racing is advised to identify track bias.

The 1400m start point features a short run to the first turn and those with the tactical speed to cross or with a premier barrier position will be advantaged.

 Racing Market Movers

Favourite Vega Magic remains solid in early bettting at $2.70. There are no other significant moves of note. 

 Key Runners

#1 Happy Clapper $5.50

Always runs well, however unfortunately more often than not is placed against the worlds best in Winx.

Although there is no Winx here, he still strikes a hot Group 1 field where it will not be easy.

He will be forced to go back from the mid-field draw in gate 7 where Mark Zahra will be praying for the leaders to overdo it up front.

Last start he did place behind Winx in the Queen Elizabeth and whilst the first-up record is acceptable, expect many others to have his measure.

Looks well under the odds at the current $5.50 and expect that to drift closer to jump. No.

#3 Vega Magic $2.70  

Is on an Everest path after receiving a slot following a dominant last start win here in the Bletchingly at Group 3 level.

This of course is a step-up with a much deeper field engaged.

I fear trainers with confirmed Everest slot holders may look for softer runs early in their prep. Choosing to preserve the horse for the ultimate target rather than trying to win at all costs.

That is the risk punters have to take on Saturday with this runner, however he is the likely leader, and if he gets it soft at any stage, will be right in the finish. Top hope.

#7 Kings Will Dream $10  

Had the flashing light on when running a slashing 4 of 16 in the PB Lawrence here first-up.

He draws the outside but will get back in the field in any case, as per his natural pattern.

May well get the strong tempo he needs to run over the top of them all, with an abundance of genuine on-pace types engaged.

One of the most talented horses in the country, who I doubt we have seen the best of yet. Leading hope.

#8 Kementari $4.40

Special K will be out to atone for what many believed to be a disappointing run behind Winx last start, when a few good judges suggested he could beat the great mare.

No doubt he is all class and the 1400m is perfect third-up.

Slight knock when considering his position in the run, as the speed map does look ugly for him.

He's likely to get back further than Team Blue would like, otherwise risk racing 3 and 4 wide the trip.

Current betting has him marked $4.40 which looks a fraction short considering he has to overcome the draw at a tricky Caulfield 1400m start point.

Would need luck and place preferred.

#9 Grunt $9

Has an outstanding record (6:4-0-1) where he's only been out of the money once.

I like that he has had the two good wins over 1600m, indicating he has the stoutness to run home strongly if the leaders go too fast.

There is a distinct possibility this will occur, and with a number of well fancied runners drawn wide, look for him to smoke the pipe in behind and present at the right time.

$10 looks very acceptable and at the price he must go on top. Yes

#10 Showtime $11

Won well here last start in Group 2 company beating a field stacked with quality and displaying a tough 'close to speed' profile to fight right to the line.

From gate 2, Dunn will have him just in behind the leading division and should secure one of the most economical runs throughout.

This is another step-up, however the speed map favours bring him right into contention. Excellent prospects.

Of The Others

#6 Dollar for Dollar will be one at odds running on late. If they find a position in behind the ruck and the gaps come, may get closer than most think.

Have a peanut each-way if the price gets out to $40+

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