Moonee Valley and Rosehill track insights 26 August 2017

Our team have brought together some late information about the track conditions of Rosehill and Moonee Valley for tomorrow’s racing. With the prospect of several favoured runners having their hopes dashed by any unexpected bias on the track, it is well worth the read before you punt.

Moonee Valley

Acting track manager Tony Salisbury provided an update on Moonee Valley yesterday. Currently rated a soft 6, Salisbury reported that the Valley’s inside lanes have dried quicker than the outside, providing what he believes to be a faster surface for leaders in the home straight.

This opinion flies in the face of race statistics at Moonee Valley which point to an obvious advantage for outside runners who get the benefit of the track camber into the home straight amongst other factors.

Adding further uncertainty for punters is the revelation that that significant track maintenance was recently carried out at the Valley which may be a contributing factor to any changes in race patterns.

Changes to expected race patterns can impact the winning chances of several fancied runners on Saturday. Yogi has been backed into $3 from $3.70 openers. He’s a noted back-marker who would be significantly inconvenienced by any bias towards the inside rails. So what does the market know that Salisbury doesn’t?

Respected form analyst David Gately notes in his Saturday form assessment that the Moonee Valley track favoured front runners on June 17 when the rail was out 3 metres and rated a Good 4. It’s in its true position tomorrow and is currently a slow 6.

Tough one to conclude. For my money I'm going short early until I see a few go around. They're travelling over 2500m in the first race. That should give us a good early indication on how the track is playing.

Rosehill

The rail is out six metres for the entire course, and the track is rated a Good 3 with no rain in sight. Based on historical data punters can expect the track to play evenly, at least in the earlier races. The rail position will tighten things up a bit more in the straight which increases the challenge for back markers finding clear air in the run for the post.

Mike Steward.