Saturday Racing Lays of the Day 3/6/23

This week we are focusing on two Eagle Farm runners, where the market is in love with their recent runs.

This sets up a classic case of “recency bias” and they both come up with great risks at their current odds.

Mid-way through the card a last-start Adelaide winner is forced to take on the higher quality Sydney local horses and should find this race much harder.

Whilst later in the card another last-start winner looks vulnerable, with the market latching on to her champion 2yo season ratings and what appeared to be a charmed run in The Roses.

Avoid both at their current short quotes in betting.

Eagle Farm Race 5 #2 Foxy Frida $2.40

This mare won a very weak Group race last start in Adelaide and punters are now getting carried away.

She is now forced to take on quality horses from Sydney and a few smart locals, in this much deeper race.

There appears to be some “recency bias” creeping into the price here and the current quote looks poison odds.

She will be forced to go back from gate 8 with a speed horse drawn underneath her, and if they slow the tempo mid-race she may struggle to reel them in on this occasion.

Will be flashing late but likely to run out of time to collar those racing more forward.

Avoid. 

Head to our horse racing tip market to access the selections of proving winning form analysts.