Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 31/5/25

This week, we’ve found two well-supported favourites who appear severely over-bet.

One off pure hype and the other off a flashy last-start win.

At Caulfield, a hype horse returns to Victoria following a disappointing Sydney Autumn.

Connections now appear to be pressing on beyond the original campaign targets.

Meanwhile, at Eagle Farm on Group 1 day, a last-start Scone Cup winner has come up at prohibitive odds.

Despite benefiting from everything going his way last time out.

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Caulfield Race 3 #1 Big Swinger $2.40

There’s a massive boom around this three-year-old.

He will almost certainly be over-bet by retail punters, with bookmakers expected to keep him artificially short all the way through betting.

This race has the hallmarks of an afterthought, following a failed Sydney Autumn campaign, which yielded nothing.

If the stable had been pragmatic, they would have spelled him after the poor Randwick run.

He was awful last start, blowing the start and getting well back in the field, where he never looked a winning chance at any stage.

Now, around the tight-turning Caulfield circuit and drawn barrier 2, there will be no room for poor manners or tardy behaviour.

A repeat of those habits will likely see him spat out the back early, with no chance to recover.

At the current quote, this is a classic hype horse at a poison price.

I expect the pro punters to gap him late on the exchange.

Avoid.

Eagle Farm Race 4 #1 Tavi Time $2.50

He was visually impressive winning the Scone Cup last start, but it was a win that came with every possible favour.

He enjoyed a dream midfield run along the rail, then slipped through gaps at the perfect time to save ground and hit the line late with little resistance.

Despite the small field, he will again need everything to fall into place, and there looks to be more pressure in this race.

The booking of James McDonald will only compress the price further, likely taking it below what would be considered fair value.

From gate 3, he risks being buried in the ruck and will need every ounce of J Mac’s ability to extricate him at the right moment.

I would much rather be with runners who map forward of him and control the race.

At the current price, Tavi Time represents no value for punters.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.