Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 4/5/24
- Author: James BeesonMay 02, 2024 11:30 AM
- Photo: Getty
I love being against hype horses
This week we take on two favoured runners that appear highly vulnerable due to ugly speed maps.
At Caulfield a classic “hype horse” is searching for a hat-trick of wins, however must face genuine Saturday Metro class for the first time.
While at Eagle Farm, a high-profile sprinter also appears to have speed map concerns.
He could be forced to race wide throughout or be dragged back to race against his normal racing pattern.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Caulfield Race 6 #7 Angland $3.20
I love being against this type of horse when they rise to Saturday metro grade for the first time, after coming out of wins in restricted and maiden classes.
He was a big tip around town last start at Pakenham where he won, however he beat nothing and did have a slight scare over the final 50m for those that dived into the short odds.
There will be much more pressure throughout the run here, which is a factor he is yet to be exposed to and one that can often bring these profiles undone.
From the low draw (gate 2) and with plenty of speed drawn to his outside, he is a huge chance of being buried back along the inside.
Add in that he races at Caulfield for the first time and the inexperience could make it very difficult for him to navigate the turn.
This race has some quality in it and I expect a significant market drift close to start time.
Avoid.
Eagle Farm Race 8 #1 Uncommon James $2.80
I would have liked to have seen more in the first-up performance where he had in-run favours after sitting just in behind the leaders.
He looked a touch weak over the final 200m, albeit at Group 1 level.
He does race well second-up (4:3-1-0) however strikes a deep race here where he won’t be suited by the early speed drawn inside him.
With Front Page, Prince of Boom and Petronius all going forward, he is a significant chance of being trapped wide throughout.
His preferred pattern is to race forward and in the event they opt to go back, a few of these could be well in front after the bend.
If this occurs, I doubt he will be able to run them down.
The speed map looks ugly here and the current price on this factor alone should lengthen.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.