Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 12/4/25

This week we focus on two warm favourites on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick, both of whom look vulnerable and have the potential to rout punters taking the short odds.

In the ATC Oaks, the hot favourite has endured a brutal campaign of travel and racing.

The 2400m trip may test her in more ways than one and she shapes as an excellent risk at a poison price.

Meanwhile in the Sydney Cup, a front-running galloper is expected to get a “dream run” out in front, but I expect he could face plenty of pressure and ultimately drift in the market closer to start time.

Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Randwick Race 6 #2 Treasure The Moment $1.65

There’s no doubt she’s all class, but stepping up to the gruelling 2400m now has the potential to blunt her brilliance.

Over this journey, I believe it brings her back closer to the field reducing her margin of dominance.

She was outstanding when winning the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill last start, but a hectic campaign involving travel must be starting to take its toll.

This shapes as a race where we could see a “tired” performance, with her turn of foot weakening late.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see her peaking at the 200m as some of the genuine staying types surge past her.

She’s a high-quality filly but is priced like she’s unbeatable... which she’s not.

Avoid.

Randwick Race 7 #8 Alalcance $2.50

Now into his fourth run this prep and having been trained to race on speed in every start, the risk of regression is mounting as he steps up to 3200m.

I’m happy to take him on here in what is a deep, quality Sydney Cup field, especially given he’s never run beyond 2400m.

That’s a significant unknown.

The market has overreacted to the likely lead scenario, assuming he’ll get it all his own way.

I’m expecting multiple runners to keep him honest, which may expose his lack of staying credentials.

I expect the professional betting teams to oppose him late, and $3+ could be widely available come start time.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.