Mornington Cup Tips and Best Bets 2024
- Author: Cody LaneApr 19, 2024 12:00 PM
- Photo: Getty
Kiwi Superstar can jag spot in the Caulfield Cup
One of Victoria's premier racecourses takes center stage this Saturday as the Melbourne Racing Club hosts the Mornington Cup meeting.
The victor of this race not only pockets $180,000 in prize money but also earns a coveted spot in the $5 million Caulfield Cup in the spring.
This year's field is wide open, with 'First Immortal' currently the favourite at $4.60, alongside a couple of New Zealanders who bring some promising form from across the ditch.
With the field being so open there's some serious value on offer, with one horse at double figures seemingly overlooked in the market.
Cody Lane continues to find value amongst his best bets.
Track Conditions
The track is currently rated as a Soft 6.
With a shower or two forecasted for Friday and a cloudy day expected on Saturday I suggest the track rating will likely remain unchanged
The running rail is in the True position, offering every horse its chance.
Historically, it favours horses up on pace or drawn inside barriers, settling close to the running rail.
Mornington Race 8 – Mornington Cup (2400m)
The Map
It's undeniable that 6-year-old mare Deny Knowledge (4) will take up the front running, with New Zealander Good Oil (1) expected to settle just behind the front-runner, utilising the advantageous barrier.
Future History (7) and 4-year-old up-and-comer Nereus (9), also hailing from New Zealand, shouldn't be too far from the front.
The race favorite, First Immortal (13), faces a tricky draw.
It's difficult to predict whether jockey Luke Currie will aim for the front or opt for a safer rearward position.
With Deny Knowledge setting a strong pace, the field is likely to spread out, potentially allowing Currie to position the favourite just off the pace.
Other top contenders, Little Mix (14) and Strawberry Rock (10), will probably settle around midfield or slightly better.
The Favorite
First Immortal has consistently been a strong contender throughout his young career, boasting 8 wins from 17 starts.
Despite not getting a clear run at the top of the straight in the Group 3 Easter Cup at Caulfield last time out, he wasn't travelling well enough to be the winner.
It begs the question why he's favoured here, especially when there are several contenders in this field who finished ahead of him in the Easter Cup.
He performs well third-up (2:1-1-0) and with Luke Currie taking the reins, there's a chance for redemption.
However, the tricky draw poses a challenge, regardless of his positioning.
Happy to look around him.
Tips
While backing up from a 3200m run isn't easy, 5-year-old gelding Good Oil appears significantly undervalued here.
His form in New Zealand, particularly his second-place finish in the Group 2 Auckland Cup, speaks volumes.
The winner of the Auckland Cup, 'Mahrajaan', pulled up lame in the Sydney Cup, while the third-place finisher, 'Mark Twain', went on to win the Roy Higgins at Flemington impressively.
With such form, Good Oil should thrive in this race, especially with added fitness.
With a perfect draw and Billy Egan aboard, he's a strong contender in a moderate field.
Strawberry Rock, who finished second behind 'Mark Twain', also presents a compelling case.
I'm expecting her to settle just ahead of midfield, and she has maintained good form under the guidance of trainer Ciaron Maher.
Another Kiwi entrant, Nereus, boasts an impressive record of 5 wins from 8 starts.
With plenty of potential and the aim of securing a spot in the Caulfield Cup, this lightly-raced 4-year-old has the support of jockey Michael McNab, who has a commendable record aboard.
Deny Knowledge showed resilience in the Easter Cup and should thrive on the tight-turning Mornington track, setting a challenging pace for the field to chase.
- Good Oil
- Strawberry Rock
- Nereus
- Deny Knowledge
There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.