Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 27/4/24
- Author: James BeesonApr 26, 2024 09:00 AM
- Photo: Getty
Racing back at Caulfield will burn you
This week we take on two favoured runners at Caulfield who both appear unsuited due to their “run on” racing patterns.
With the rail out 4m they will struggle to win.
Early in the card a popular runner for the Moody/Coleman team is likely to race well off the pace from a tricky draw.
They will simply run out of time to catch the leading division.
While later in the day, the same fate should be suffered by a Daniel O’Sullivan horse, who although dropping in grade still faces a few good ones who could be off and gone.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Caulfield Race 3 #1 Pounding $2.50
This gelding is forced to carry plenty of weight (60kg) here and may need another run second-up to be reaching peak fitness.
He was good first-up at Yarra Glen when placing 3rd in a field of 12, however the race did lack depth.
It also saw the field cross the line as a group, which would suggest it was a poor form-race going forward.
On this occasion, he launches from gate 9 around Caulfield and the only option for the rider is to go back.
While this is his natural pattern, it is often much harder to be running on from a rearward position at this track with the rail out 4m.
He looks unsuited here and should drift in the market close to start time, where $3+ could be widely available.
Avoid.
Caulfield Race 5 #4 Berkeley Square $2.50
Along the same theme as this week’s first lay selection, I’m anticipating it could be hard for horses to be running on from the back at Caufield.
This is another runner that is likely to race back in the field.
He ran on well here last start when contesting a weak Group 3 event and I believe the market may be getting too carried away by a perceived drop in grade, with this race still having some depth.
With a number of genuine on-speed runners engaged, he is likely to be chasing around the tight track from a long way out. He will need to be timing his run to perfection to be reeling in a few of these.
He has plenty against him, in a race where the first half of the field in running will have a significant advantage at this set-up.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.