Saturday Racing Lays of the Day 3/12/2022
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- Author: James BeesonDec 01, 2022 01:20 PM
- Photo: Getty
Rosehill Raspberries
This week we have found two over-bet favourites who appear excellent risks at Rosehill at their current prices.
Early in the card, a Maher/Eustace boom 3YO colt has everyone “hooked” following a visually impressive win at Cranbourne, where he looked to have all the favours.
Later in the day, the same stable present another well found favourite who seems to struggle when they attempt the higher grades.
Rosehill Race 3 #2 Garza Blanca $2.40
This is much harder than 3YO Cranbourne grade, where he won last start after being blessed in the run.
He parked midfield in behind a hot speed in that clash and after the leaders cut at each other, he had a huge advantage sitting off them and watching it all unfold.
This is a completely different set-up at Rosehill, where a wide looping run is not typically the best ground or pattern to be racing in.
The win was visually impressive as he kicked away at the end, however I expect the bigger players to be against him in betting on this occasion. Lay.
Rosehill Race 9 #10 I Am Me $1.70
I'm going to pot the raging favourite here from a price angle, where the $1.70 appears significantly over-bet.
She was ultra-impressive winning here at Rosehill last start, however that was in Benchmark 78 grade and she is now forced to take on some seasoned campaigners at Benchmark 88 level.
This race appears to be stacked with early speed. Her racing profile is suited to finding cover and if the leaders collapse back in her face, she could be forced to come wider in the least preferred ground.
She does have Listed stakes form, however has never threatened at that class and it appears that when she approaches it the wheels can fall off.
Expect the leap in grade to take its toll, with this set-up representing an excellent opportunity to be against the favourite. Avoid.
Head to our horse racing tip market to access the selections of proving winning form analysts.
