5/12/20 Saturday Racing tips at Pakenham
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- Author: Lewis WilloughbyDec 04, 2020 11:22 AM
- Photo: AAP
Best plays for Pakenham Cup Day
It's Listed Pakenham Cup day this Saturday and the track plays host to a cracking nine race card, with the feature event coming in race 7 over the 2500m journey.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and there are late showers predicted on Saturday, so there's a chance we could downgrade late in the meeting if the rain arrives early.
The rail is true the entire circuit and at this set-up, the surface will play fairly.
Pakenham Race 1 Tip #3 Nantucket $5.00
I'm keen to be with Nantucket, who is an extremely honest horse who fails to run a bad race and looks great value here in the opener.
He returned last start with a great fresh win over the 1000m at Bendigo, breaking through for a deserved maiden win which is sure to give him some confidence.
He spotted the leader an almighty start at the top of the straight that day, and really knuckled down to his work inside the final 150m to get over the top and score.
His two-year-old form last prep was very good. In that campaign he recorded three straight runner-up finishes behind smart types like Valaquenta and Our Playboy. Both of those horses have gone on to win in Group and Listed events.
The gelding strips fitter second-up here and although he climbs in the weights, he strikes a very winnable race.
There looks to be an abundance of speed in this event so if Nantucket can sit off the speed around midfield, he'll stalk them into the straight and hit the line very well off the fast tempo.
Pakenham Race 8 Tip #5 The Astrologist $2.75
This looks like The Astrologist's race to lose.
He comes here at his peak being fourth-up and off the back of a fresh win and two consecutive second placings in very strong races.
He got a long way back off a hot tempo last start at Ballarat over 1100m, and was getting through the line very well but ran out of time to claim the winner.
Two starts back, he was just out-bobbed in a photo by Exhilarates in Listed grade down the Flemington straight.
In my opinion he has been screaming for extra distance in his last two runs, so the step-up to 1400m now will be ideal.
He has tackled this trip before having finished second behind Rubisaki, so we know that he'll be able to run the distance.
With a lack of early speed in this race, look for Craig Williams to take up a more forward position and present him into the race at the right time.
He drops down in weight to only 58kg and is clearly the class horse of this field.
I have him marked $2.60, so anything over that price is a bet for mine.
