5/11/20 Best Bets for the Group 1 VRC Oaks

It's Ladies Day at Flemington, with a cracking edition of the Kennedy Oaks highlighting a great card of racing.

Short priced favourite Montefilia is looking to make it three wins on-the-trot and is carrying the weight of a punting nation. 

While she’s been well found in all-in markets, there are plenty of chances at nice odds that can cause a boil-over. Punters will still have a bitter taste in their mouth from the 2016 edition of this Group One clash, when Yankee Rose went under at $1.95.

Track Conditions

With 8mm of irrigation and light showers forecast across Melbourne, expect racing to begin in the Soft 5 range and stay that way throughout the day.

There was no track bias evident on the first two days of the carnival, and I expect a fair racing surface today with the rail out 5m.

Flemington Race 8 - Kennedy Oaks 2500m (Group 1)

The Map 

The map is unclear in this clash, and the speed looks to be below average. I expect Star Of Eden and Tyche Goddess to press forward from the low draw, while Vilanculos and Biarchi can lob in behind to box seat.

Montefilia (5) will settle just off midfield from barrier 5 alongside Miravalle and Salto Angel. Expect those runners to hold a position with cover in front of Personal, Succeed Indeed and Art Of Glass who will offset their wide barriers by being ridden cold.

Analysis & Tips 

1^st Succeed Indeed $35

This girl’s performance in the Wakeful was disappointing. However, I’m willing to give her another chance at a huge price as she looks suited stepping up in trip and now has the blinkers on.

While she’s drawn wide, Zahra can offset the draw by being positive from the gates and take advantage of the lack of speed engaged. One thing that is certain is that this girl will stay the trip.

The stable has had her prepared with this race as their sole intention and at the price, I’m keen to play each way.

2^nd Montefilia

She’s the clear class runner in the race and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see her blow this field away and win in a canter.

However, it was only four years ago when Yankee Rose went under as a $1.95 favourite in the race, off the back of running third in a Cox Plate to Winx.

She’s in magnificent order ahead of the race according to trainer David Payne and draws perfectly in barrier 5 with Hugh Bowman in the saddle. Expect Bowman to settle midfield and produce with a strong run at the top of the straight.

If she stay’s the trip, gets luck in running and runs up to her two recent Group 1 winning efforts, I suspect this may well be reminiscent of Mosheen’s emphatic 2011 victory. 

In saying this, I can’t be diving in at the current price on offer.

3^rd Miravalle 

I thought her effort in the Wakeful was super, when clocking fast closing splits. Stepping up to 2500m should see her ready to peak.

After settling back last start, I expect Williams to be more positive and position her midfield in running which should see her get every chance in the run.

4^th Salto Angel

Her run two back in the Etheral at Caulfield over 2000m was huge, when flashing into second from the rear.

However, she failed to compete with Personal and Victoria Quay last Saturday in the Wakeful.

She’s a huge price and is a filly who can certainly figure in the first four off the quick back and up in trip.

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