12/10/19 Caulfield tips and best bets: Toorak Handicap

The Toorak Handicap is one of Melbourne's most celebrated mile races and typically attracts a high quality field.

This year's edition appears slightly down on quality, with some of the bigger names weighted out of it and preferring weight-for-age options.

However, that won't prevent a robust betting market unfolding on what is always an intriguing handicap contest.

I am with a mare on the rise who already has a Group 1 scalp to her name and returned in fine order at The Valley first-up.  

 Race Caulfield Track Traits

For the latest insight on how the Caulfield track is likely to play, read our preview of the Caulfield Guineas here.  

 Racing Market Movers

The second emergency Waging War is the big mover in early betting, firming from an opening quote of $18.00 to now trade at $9.00.

Race favourite Age Of Chivalry is slightly easy, out to $7.00 from $6.00 openers. 

 Key Runners

#1 Madison County $17

You can forgive the last start failure in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, where he looked to have plenty to offer but never found clean air.

It won't be easy from gate 19 here, however there does look to be enough speed to bring him into it.

To be a factor here, he will look to find the moving line and receive a nice cart into it from well back. Would need plenty of luck.  

#2 So Si Bon $14 > $19

Has raced well all prep, however he comes up with a horror draw in gate 20 for this.

He does like to charge from a midfield position late and that is possible here considering the likely fast tempo.

I have a few ahead of him, but it would not completely surprise. Could be the value.   

#4 Widgee Turf $14 > $12

Ran on strongly second-up in the Sir Rupert Clarke when he placed 3 of 14, and he should take plenty of improvement going into this.

The step-up to 1600m is perfect and he's also had the soft trial in between runs to keep the fitness up.

There has already been support in early betting and with a stable who love a bet, he could start shorter. Yes. 

#5 Night's Watch $7.50 

Has a touch of class, however he's been disappointing of late with two sub par runs this prep.

The James McDonald booking adds interest, as his form man is one of the best at finding the right ride.

This smells of a Waller set-up and I am very wary. Include. 

#6 Sikandarabad $17

Ran well to finish 3 of 11 in the Foundation Cup here over 2000m last start, in a tough on-speed display.

The drop back to 1600m will have plenty of professional model players interested, as they love a rock hard fit horse back in distance. 

Interesting runner who should have good support in betting late. 

#9 Tom Melbourne $21

Continues to tease punters with Group level placings.

He ran well in the Shannon last start, however he simply does not know how to win. No.  

#10 Amphitrite $14

Is a classy mare and although not in the best of form, she could have a big run in her.

There were some excuses last start in the Sir Rupert Clarke, after she travelled wide and came from a long way back to finish 10 of 14.

She is far too talented to completely rule out and could reach silly odds of $20+. 

#11 Age Of Chivalry $6.00 > $7.00

Loves to lead and dictate.

He looks likely to have that opportunity here after carving across the face from gate 11.

The rider took hold last start, which didn't work. Expect them to revert back to the proven "lead at all costs" tactics here.

I doubt any will be brave enough to challenge him through the mid stages and he could easily grind them into the ground. Top hope.

#14 Princess Jenni $7.00

Had an enormous run at Moonee Valley first-up, when she charged to win from near last on what appeared a leader biased surface. 

She will receive a genuine up-front tempo in this and is likely to be storming home hard again.

Still untapped and only lightly raced with nine starts, she carries no weight (54.5kg) and must go on top. Yes.  

#20 Waging War $18 > $9.00

Is listed as second emergency and is a dual acceptor, however that hasn't stopped a wave of money arriving for him in early markets.

The early support suggests that he is going very well and has come on well from the last start 3 of 10 finish at Caulfield over 1400m.  

He represents a big danger if he gains a start. 

Of The Others

#19 Chief Ironside is currently first emergency and if he gains a start, pay attention given his strong UK stakes form. Watch betting late.

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