This method selects horse races today where there is a greater likelihood of success by assessing the degree of uncertainty associated with each race. I combine this approach to selecting the races with an approach for selecting runners in the chosen races based on form. The theory is for races with less uncertainty the form is more likely to stand-up.

I analyse each race and assign 'Uncertainty points' based on factors that add to uncertainty in the race. Uncertainty points are given for:

• 2 year old and Maiden races
• Class 1 – 6 races
• Restricted races
• Number of first start horses
• Number of horses who have not run over the distance (considering a variance for form at a distance close to the races distance e.g. 2000m experience counts for 1800m as 1800m is 10% less than 2000m)
• Number of horses who have not run on the track
• Number of horses who not run on a similar track condition
• Number of horses in the race
• Number of horses with volatile form (need to look carefully at the form not just their last placing. Lots of good runs out of the placing)
• Distance races - more uncertainty points allocated as the distance increases as it is more difficult to predict the running and untrue pace can significantly impact your assessment of the race.

I normally identify 1 to 3 races on each card where the uncertainty is low enough for the form assessment to be more effective.