| Name | William Benter |
|---|---|
| Age | 42 |
| Birth Place | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania UNITED STATES  |
| Residence | Hong Kong |
| Estimated Worth | Unknow - est. profit $6 - $8 million p.a. |
| Method Summary | Uses form analysis to determine the probability of various race outcomes. |
Method
Benter has identified 130 variables (e.g. past runs, speed etc) that influence the result of a race. He and his team review past runs to assign values for each horse against each of these variables. It is understood that these variables reflect both the horse's form and how the race will be run.
The variable information is fed into a computer that simulates potential outcomes of the race. The results from these simulations allow Benter and his team to assign probabilities to each runner, representing their percentage chance of winning the race.
Benter then compares the horse's probability of winning against its market price and identifies cases where the market price for a horse is significantly higher than the computer simulated chance of winning - referred to as value opportunities. Value theory suggests taking 'true odds', where the horse's odds (market price) are equal to its chance of winning, will result in you breaking even over time. Therefore if you always take horses that are over the odds, that is where their odds are greater than their chance of winning, then well tested probability theory warrants your success over time.
When Benter started applying his method he used only 16 variables for his form analysis. The increase in variables to 130 highlights the learning nature of Benter's method. The growth of these variables can be attributed to the tireless quest of understanding how poor results occur. In many cases it is likely that poor results are due to a lack of information used to assess the race and its runners. The answer? Understand what other factors may have influenced the outcome of the race and add them to the pool of variables to be assessed for future races.
Key Facts
Benter is recognised world over for his work in applied mathematical modeling, probability theory and statistical analysis. His predicative modeling expertise is so well regarded that he lectures at several universities across the US, Europe and Asia including Harvard, Hong Kong and Southampton Universities.
Benter's method is reported to deliver him a 24% profit on turnover.
Benter was initially in partnership with Alan Woods (see Tipster Masters).
