This week we are focusing on two Eagle Farm runners, where the market is in love with their recent runs.
This sets up a classic case of “recency bias” and they both come up with great risks at their current odds.
Mid-way through the card a last-start Adelaide winner is forced to take on the higher quality Sydney local horses and should find this race much harder.
Whilst later in the card another last-start winner looks vulnerable, with the market latching on to her champion 2yo season ratings and what appeared to be a charmed run in The Roses.
Avoid both at their current short quotes in betting.
This mare won a very weak Group race last start in Adelaide and punters are now getting carried away.
She is now forced to take on quality horses from Sydney and a few smart locals, in this much deeper race.
There appears to be some “recency bias” creeping into the price here and the current quote looks poison odds.
She will be forced to go back from gate 8 with a speed horse drawn underneath her, and if they slow the tempo mid-race she may struggle to reel them in on this occasion.
Will be flashing late but likely to run out of time to collar those racing more forward.
Avoid.
Is all the rage following her last start win at Doomben, where she appeared completely blessed against a very weak field in The Roses.
She enjoyed the fast tempo and had the suck run, before saving all the ground up the inside to get up.
I doubt she will have the same “in-run favours” here and she looks like an excellent risk at the price.
Again the recency of the last start win has the market rusted on, as does her high-rating 2yo season, where her Slipper heroics strangely are still in the front of mind for some.
She will be dragged a long way back in this from gate 16, and if they encounter any trouble throughout or are forced to work wide, she will be extremely vulnerable.
Lay.
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