This week we have found two runners that are very exposed by their recent good form, and hence come up at pure poison odds for punters.
In the Stradbroke Handicap the hot favourite has had his name up in lights for weeks now, causing the price to be severely compressed.
Whilst late in the day another “boom” runner is forced to jump up to Group 2 company, where I expect a significant price drift late.
Avoid both at their current short quotes in betting.
Could not be more exposed to the market and has come up at absolute rock bottom odds.
No doubt he has plenty of talent, however there is simply no value in the price and against the top-shelf opposition here he appears an excellent risk at the odds.
Although they are likely to go back from the mid-draw (gate 12), they won’t want to be right at the rear.
If they instead attempt to find the moving line, there is a chance he could be posted wide at some stage, which can blunt his finish.
There are also likely to be plenty of traffic issues with a number of speed horses likely to fade and impede his run.
He is going to find some trouble here, in a hot field where any slight mistake will be enough to ruin his chances.
Lay.
Hasn’t been seen since the Scone Cup carnival where she had everyone talking following an impressive win in the Listed Luskin Star Stakes.
She didn’t beat much there and the spruik has been significantly over-played here, to the point where she represents poison odds in a much deeper race.
At all Group level attempts she has failed (3:0-0-0), and the sharp leap up to Group 2 grade here looks beyond her.
She is likely to be racing well back in the field, and against some Group 1 performed horses on this occasion she would need to be finding a new peak to be winning.
Expect $3+ to be widely available come start time as the bigger teams penalise her for no history at this track and previous failures in this grade.
Avoid.
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