This week we are taking on two Eagle Farm runners that could cause punters to “slip-up”, with both facing significant challenges.
Early in the card a popular Tony Gollan runner is forced to carry a big weight (61.5kg) and may taper off third-up.
Whilst later in the day an eagerly anticipated “match-race” could be a one-sided affair, with the smart Yellow Brick the likely victor.
Avoid both at their current short quotes in betting.
Is now climbing in the weights up to 61.5kg for this, against what looks a deeper field than what he has faced in recent times.
He also appears to taper off third-up (1:0-0-1), and this is of significant concern for anyone diving into the short price.
This race lacks speed and from barrier 15 he is likely to get well back as per his natural pattern.
The leading division are set to get the race run to suit and I just can't see him being able to bridge the margin off the moderate tempo.
He will be charging late, however may run out of ground to reel some of these in.
Avoid.
Highlighting what looks like a match race here between the smart Yellow Brick and Hawaii Five Oh, where I am firmly in the Yellow Brick corner.
Hawaii Five Oh does come off a last start “flashy” win at Hawkesbury, however that race appeared to lack depth and this event looks much harder.
He was simply blessed in run last start where he enjoyed the perfect trail just in behind the hot tempo.
Given a more cluttered speed map here he may not enjoy the same favours.
Yellow Brick is clearly well above average and likely to be a genuine Group 1 horse, where given any luck here and the motivation of a Stradbroke ticket, he should simply win.
Laying Hawaii Five Oh.
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