In this week's edition of Lays of the Day, we are taking on two warm favourites on the Doomben card which both face significant challenges.
Early in the day, a popular Godolphin runner with poor racing manners looks set to get well-back and comes up an excellent risk.
Whilst later in the program, the price of the Doomben Cup favourite looks awfully compressed considering his brutal last start run where he looked very tired on the line. Could he be busted?
Wide draws around Doomben attract a significant penalty, given it is typically very hard to make ground around this circuit. Drawing gate 14 represents a significant challenge for the favourite here.
He was only fair at the Sunshine Coast last time out, where he was unsettled before the start and then jumped poorly to get well-back in the field.
Bad manners in this event will almost certainly make it a near impossible task, especially if they find themselves well-back in the run and over-racing.
With a number of key challenges to overcome, the current quote is far too short and I would expect $3+ to be widely available come start time. Lay.
I'm going to pot the Doomben Cup favourite here, who could turn up cooked in this following a tough run last start in the Sunshine Coast.
He may be forced to sit outside the leader from the wide draw here (gate 11), with Numerian likely to take up the running.
Although he was good when winning the Hollindale Stakes, his rivals closed in on him late and he looked very flat on the line after being trapped wide throughout.
Now getting on in his career, his bounce back ability won't be what it used to be and there's a cloud of vulneribility hovering over him here especially with the step up to 2000m.
The Doomben Cup is a deeper race and I'm not prepared to dive into the rock-bottom odds to see if the gut-busting run has taken its toll.
I expect him to be fried and tired inside the final 100m. Avoid.
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