Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 28/9/24
- Author: James BeesonSep 26, 2024 11:15 AM
- Photo: Getty
Pharari is no Ferrari
We successfully predicted the failure of Bear On The Loose last week and now turn our attention to Rosehill.
This week we focus on two favoured runners that look to have significant challenges to overcome and represent great risks at this stage of betting.
Mid-way through the card a quality 3yo colt has opted for the easier option to avoid the good horses in the Golden Rose, which signals a lack of confidence and may indicate the horse is tapering off.
Whilst late in the day a popular runner has drawn low (gate 2) and with a deteriorating track may struggle to get off the inferior inside going, if the preferred ground is wider.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Rosehill Race 5 #3 Gatsby’s $2.10
Raced flat to my eye last start and the stable opting for the easier race here is telling, when they could have gone to the Golden Rose if he was truly firing.
He’s not completely gone yet, however the last start effort may suggest he is tapering off this preparation with the peak first-up run now well behind him.
This race has depth with plenty of young horses still on the way up and nearing their own peaks, which could come on Saturday.
Gate 1 looks ugly for him and with his natural get-back racing pattern he is likely to be crossed here and need luck at some stage to extricate into clean air, representing a significant challenge.
The J Mac/Waller factor is always likely to be over-bet and he represents no value at the current quote in betting.
Avoid.
Rosehill Race 10 #11 Pharari $2.70
No doubt has above average talent however the recent form appears suspect coming out a lower grade Benchmark 70 race at Sandown.
Whilst the wet form (2:2-0-0) is sound, she may need to overcome a deteriorating track late in the day where the inside sections can often chop out and represent inferior ground.
With a low draw (gate 2) she needs luck to find the better part of the track.
She carries some hype now and this looks like an ideal chance to take her on in the stronger field now, where she is forced to tackle Rosehill for the first time against better quality.
I expect the bigger teams to be against her late here, and $3+ could be widely available come start time.
Avoid.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.