Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 1/6/24
- Author: James BeesonMay 30, 2024 04:30 PM
- Photo: Getty
Autumn Angel set to face hell in Derby
We hope you listened last week, with both 'Eneeza' and 'Navy Blood' getting beat and by a combined 13L might we add.
This week we have found two runners that come up excellent risks, with both appearing to have significant challenges to overcome at poison prices.
At Caulfield Ciaron Maher switches one back to Melbourne from Sydney, where he is a huge risk of being buried back in the field and unable to extricate around the tight Caulfield circuit.
Whilst in the Group 1 QLD Derby we are firmly against the favourite, who is another that faces a stiff test, and potential traffic issues from her low draw.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Caulfield Race 7 #7 St Lawrence $2.80
He has been over-bet here in early markets, with every man and his dog over-playing the faultless second up record (2:2-0-0).
He returns from Sydney, where he ran home well to place 3rd of 13 albeit suited by a genuine tempo over 1500m.
On this occasion, I have strong doubts he gets the required pace in this race to suit his run on profile.
He doesn't have the tactical speed to use the good draw (gate 3) and this may leave him buried in the second half of the field.
This is rarely ideal around the tricky Caulfield circuit and runners often need clean air to be any hope of winning.
He looks an excellent risk at the current price and could start longer if the big teams mark him down for the negative speed map.
Avoid.
Eagle Farm Race 8 #18 Autumn Angel $2.60
Taking on the warm QLD Derby favourite here, who has been up and racing for an “eternity” this preparation.
She looks very close to being “over the top” now and represents a huge risk of racing stale here.
She did run well last start (2nd of 16) in the Rough Habit at Doomben, when unsuited by her run-on profile around the tighter Doomben circuit.
That event however lacked plenty of depth and she was flattered by racing against C-tier opposition.
Now arriving at the Derby, this field is much stronger.
Although Eagle Farm will suit, she still comes up an excellent risk to my eye, and will need favours to extricate at some stage.
The stable will have been disappointed to draw low in barrier 1 and she may be forced to weave through the pack as opposed to their preferred get to the outside pattern.
She looks extremely vulnerable here.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.